Regardless of the fact that we all know that no one's job anywhere is ever guaranteed, there are always those who are surprised when they get laid off. How safe do you feel at your job now?
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Gotta be honest, @3tkf+1kRjFNql you sound like someone who hasn't been on the job market in the last few years. Many of the things you said used to be true, when the "job pool" and the people applying for them were mostly local to your current location. What the last few years have done is open up the pool of jobs and applicants nationwide (and in some cases worldwide). This is a double edged sword- you have magnitudes of orders of more jobs available, located anywhere in the country, many that won't require you to relocate like the before-times. But it also means the competition is very high, as going forward you will be competing with everyone, not just your neighbors. You aren't going to be "exhausting" the supply of jobs if you adapt to the new market. If anything, you'll add to your network and if you make a good enough impression- they may come back to you even if you don't land the initial role you interviewed for.
Sure, Amazon has a 6 month blacklist. Dont apply if you aren't willing to risk it. But, if your going to apply at a FAANG, why would you turn down a job there if offered compared to somewhere like NetApp? And if you aren't up to snuff, you wouldn't have been anyway. Nothing stopping you from preparing for intense interview processes, whether there is a coming layoff for your current company or not. Recruiters aren't blacklisting otherwise, and even if they are, there are thousands of them. Your reputation isn't as important as it was years ago when you were only applying in your current area.
But I completely agree with keeping your skills, resume and network up to date. Also doesn't hurt to be tapping out some leetcode tasks, a lot of interviewers pull directly from there these days. The current industry could be a big shock for people who haven't been looking for several years.
So this is probably bad advice to "always be applying".... Keep your resume up to date, talk to people in the industry outside of your job, hit a conference (even if you pay to go yourself) and keep your skills relevant with an interest cert. If you apply all the time, you will get interviews you may not take and at companies like Amazon, you can be black listed if you fail an interview for 6 months. Many employers do that, plus your personal relationships at those companies can suffer. Update resume every 3 months. Do a single interview for an up job and then decide to pursue. You want to "know what is out there" but do not exhaust the pool of jobs for when you need it. Then if you get hit you are comfortable with looking and ready to find something.
Another point is that if you work for a cr---y boss, or end up in a corporate ki-l zone you have leverage over the situation. "I don't need to put up with this" is the best way to handle a toxic work environment. Safety is an illusion at any company, especially now, but the quality of your resume, your network and your brand outside is extremely important.
Always be applying. You never know when your job is over and what better opportunities are out there. If you're always in the job search pipeline, a layoff is not particularly concerning. Plus, you can keep up to date on interviewing skills and keep tabs on what skills are in demand.
I'll be completely fine if I'm laid off, almost hoping for it. I find layoffs are the kick in the bu-t needed to to really improve the work situation. I've never had a layoff that didn't ultimately become a good thing.