How high will it go?
18 replies (most recent on top)
Stock = 42.98
Oil = 93.10
Wow... someone who thinks the economics used to justify a project are the actual economics. This industry is littered with the corpses of companies who didn't know the difference.
You are definitely not in planning or engineering.
Easily controlled? Actual payout time and ROR are highly dependent on product price and service costs. Good luck predicting that over the life of a project. Did we predict negative WTI in 2020? Did we predict 7%+ inflation now?
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future...
These companies will will set bogus performance metrics based on what they can control, not what they can't control.
This is easily controlled at the management level by setting project thresholds for payout time and Rate of return.
This is true. It'll be interested to see how this new strategy plays out WITHIN various companies. In the past, management and staff were rewarded for spending money and accelerating development. Now, the goal is shareholder return. I see potential conflict.
My guess is there'll be a proliferation of unproductive "busy work" to justify everyone's existence, and a new set of generous metrics to continue rewarding them. Although shareholder return is clearly not a part of Oxy's strategy (except for Buffett), I suspect we'll elevate busy work and faux collaboration to a whole new level.
Sorry, but investors don’t want oil companies to increase production. The US government doesn’t want oil companies to increase production, unless they are OPEC. The public doesn’t want oil companies to increase production, since solar and wind will save the environment and counteract climate change. SMH. You haven’t been paying attention have you? Forget the old dynamic of increasing production and growing. Investors just want oil companies to maintain low cost production and pay a dividend. Oxy will start paying a dividend sometime this year, and all will be right as rain. Have a cookie.
Chevron is talking about increasing production, others will follow. Hard to resist sitting and doing not much when oil is 90-100s. Won’t look good and investors are going to demand some action.
Great post. Sarcasm is so refreshing compared to the hateful and vulgar posts that are typical of this board.
Another top-notch quantitative financial analysis...
I'm curious, were you directly involved in the APC acquisition? Just asking to know how much weight to place on your predictions.
Just kidding- I known you don't work here anymore because you referenced the dividend.
Oxy stock will bump up as the debt is paid off and the dividend is brought back. These upsides will more than compensate for the general market downturn coming in the next month due to rising interest rates.
@1vic+1f7xeZsM Oil prices are rising due to consistently strong demand and limited supply. Ukraine crisis contributes, but is not the reason behind the prices. Prices are rising due to fundamentals of the market.
Okay, "just nice to see" is reasonable, but "Vikki stands a good chance of going down as a good CEO" is ridiculous.
@1vic+1f7xeZsM At some point it is just nice to see after the 2 plus years of nothing but negative things. Take a win here and there helps.
@1ddy- In the wise words of Larry David... curb your enthusiasm. Oil is only rising to this level because of the imminent invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
This is a classic Black Swan event, and they don't last as long as you think or want.
Going to be higher today as oil opens at near 92.00. I think we all need to reflect back on early 2020, and really feel lucky today. It just goes to prove that time and patience payoff in the end. As long as oil keeps at these prices the debt will be paid down and we might get out of the Anadarko acquisition mess we created for ourselves. If this turns out to be the case I guess Vikki stands a good chance of going down as a good CEO. Sure, we paid too much for Anadarko, but when you have cash flowing like it is now then it is easier to get out of the ho-e. Now maybe we can hire some people to take the workloads down a little. It would be nice to actually be able to think about the work you are doing as opposed to burning through it just to keep the conveyor belt moving.
$60 by the end of 2022!
uhhh