18 replies (most recent on top)
Look at all the lame excuses to hide the fact that people got huge merit increases when the company laid off so many people. Pointing the finger to inflation doesn’t hide this fact. Merit should be around 2 to 3% max after the state of the economy and the company. Gsr 8 minimum is like over $100k, this can’t last forever just look at what happened to the UAW when they got greedy.
@2owp+1lDwsC4K You just contradict yourself... how can the private sector be recovered when there are already less people working in the country, millions less, that many "bars and restaurants" cannot get help and they stay open fewer hours. Do you truly believe that all those waiters became programmers and engineers during Covid-19 lockdowns? Yeah, right!
All those numbers presented by the government look good, until you take a closer look. FTs are getting replaced by hourly and part time jobs. More families are deciding to home school the children (woke curriculum, violence, bullying), more families are taking care of elderly and sick relatives, where women are taking the brunt of this load, while more people struggle to pay the bills (Federal Food Assistance rose slightly in 2023).
Unemployment numbers look good because they are based on the amount of people "looking for jobs" and not the real amount of healthy, "able to work" grown ups. According to the "official numbers", in 2022 around 158 million of Americans had some form of employment, and the unemployment never went beyond 3.8%. However, we have around 210 millions of Americans in the age range appropriated for working. 158/210 => 75% of employment and 25% of unemployment. This is not a Red vs Blue argument, since both parties like to keep the numbers nice for election times. BTW, in 2019, we also had around 158 million of workers.
The difference is in the labor force participation rate, which is lower now than in 2019. We are talking about several millions of workers short (around 2% of the population, or 6 million or so). That's why bars and restaurants cannot find help.
So if we have around 6 million less workers now, how come we have similar numbers of employment in 2022 than in 2019 (158 millions)? The answer is because there are more Americans holding 2 or more jobs. Therefore, the numbers are not telling the whole story. Besides, there is enough evidence showing part time jobs have risen to be 1/3 of all current jobs. Since the government jobs are usually FT, and they account for almost 1/6 of all jobs, this means part time jobs make 40% of jobs in the private sector.
Also remember we are only talking 2019 vs 2022. We haven't seen yet the impact of the layoffs in 2023, which are not over, especially for the Ford workforce.
One more thing to add... all the numbers provided are easy to find in government sites, like the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I just looked beyond the "nice numbers" like unemployment rate, to really understand what they truly represent, and allowed myself to question those numbers, until I was able to link those with the reality I know. This may be a very nerd thing to say, but I love being an engineer and understand things.
So many local businesses are advertising for help wanted offering $16-$20 per hour. Personal experience talking with construction and restaurant owners, they can’t get help. Restaurants and bars in my area are open 4-9pm or 8am - 3pm. I have no idea how they pay their fixed costs. Weekly job creation numbers are 3X what they were prior to COVID (2019). Private sector has fully recovered, public and state government jobs are still lagging.
Unemployment is 3.5% and labor force participation rate is at an all time low. Lot of people retired or are taking a break from working or seeking work.
This is why prices are so high…. Labor especially. Labor supply is in short supply. Therefore signs on many many businesses hiring and offering paid training, $16-$20 per hour plus benefits and signing bonus.
Business owners would not be offering this if they didn’t need to. Remember the cry for “living wage” $15 per hour from Bernie Sanders.
Yes it can go downhill from here fast. That is reality.therefore Fed attempt at soft landing.
"The economy is overheated therefore the need for fed reserve to raise rates to dampen economy and bring down inflation."
🤣
High inflation, which is what the higher interest rates are about, do not mean a robust economy. Every day more layoffs are announced. The unemployment rate is a trailing statistic. As people 's severance runs out they will file for unemployment and the unemployment rate will catch up.
It is going to get worse. And the car makers, especially the ones that still have their own financial arm (hint: Ford) are headed for pain.
@1die+1lDwsC4K The economy is NOT overheated. The economy suffered a lot due to the lockdowns, and we should had a bigger recession. The government threw enough money around to avoid a big recession, but caused a huge inflation. The Federal Reserve is tightening the rates because of inflation (more money than goods), not because of a buoyant economy.
That unemployment number is fake and has been demonstrated as that for a long time. We have less people working than in 2019, and our productivity also fell last year. There is no way the economy is better today than in 2019, the last time when we had a "regular" or "healthy" economy.
Recessions are good for capitalism and the health of the economy. It culls the weak and inefficient companies, and only the stronger ones, the better to adapt ones, survive. The problem is that it also affects the lives of millions of workers, and is "bad" for politics. Usually the party in power during a recession tends to lose the next election and even the one after too. That's why the "modern" administrations try to avoid recessions.
The unwillingness to accept recessions as part of the capitalism cycle, caused a very long period of low interest rates. During which many "zombies" companies were given extra life due to the artificially low interest rates. It seems is time to pay the piper, and many large companies are tightening their belts.
Ford is not the exception here. In fact, as part of the tightening the belt, the company is looking to outsource the NA white collar workforce, reduce the blue collar unionized workforce, and get rid of the pension liabilities.
FMC is in a very shaky ground financially. Recession are not good for selling vehicles, delinquencies go up, quality is abysmal, we keep losing customers, we are making less money, while at the same time, we are in the middle of the stupid BEV transition and throwing cash we no longer have to any "pet" project.
IDK how big the recession will be, IDK if the company will survive the next years, but I know my number rang. I have known it for a while, especially after seeing a parade of C-suites more inept than the previous one. Forget about retirement expectations. Layoffs are coming, outsourcing is already in motion, and the bigger the fiefdoms are, the leaner the teams doing actual work are. The pain is already real for the worker bees, while the drones and the queens keep getting fat with the honey of the company.
To @1xkn
What do you mean “the economy continues to suck” in terms of jobs available or prices?
The economy is overheated therefore the need for fed reserve to raise rates to dampen economy and bring down inflation. The implied goal is to accept slightly higher unemployment also to bring down inflation.
However Unemployment remains at 3.5%. This is a very tight labor market.
Many people who retired or were SIRPed have gone on to employment with other companies using their skills and happily seeing Ford, Farley and Fields in the rear view mirror.
It’s going to suck for Ford due to management. It’s your option to stick it out or leave to do what’s best for you and your family. There are much greener pastures out there.
On the comment of car loans delinquencies….yes that could be a sign of recession coming… but it’s not here yet. However Let’s all petition the government to cancel all car loans just like student loans.
They can't give huge raises, that offsets the savings from the firings! What do you think the 80% individual AICP is all about?
The really bad news is that delinquencies are ticking up for car loans. As the economy continues to suck, as layoffs continue to happen all over the place, people can no longer afford their average $700/month car payments. As those go up Ford's cash to debt ratio will continue to go down.
All I can say is that with lower bonuses, lower raises and higher inflation, and a company on the brink of bankruptcy, it may be time to jump ship. I've dipped my toe in the waters up until now. It is time to seriously look to get out of this sinking ship.
Before I retired I received a 1.5% raise after getting a Top Achiever rating on my PR. I was told I was at the high end of my salary range so there was nothing they could do for me. That should incentivize those who take their job seriously. Maybe Farley was doing young people a favor by stating employees shouldn't look at Ford Motor Company as a career.
I suspect UAW will be asking for 6-10% annually for the next 4 years. Plus union dues will become deductible from MI income tax, so all taxpayers will be paying for UAW.
@quh+1lDwsC4K - sounds like garnered a TA rating and hopefully thanks are in order. The CPI print today put annual inflation at 6.0% officially, so not too bad against that number. But I've read in a few places where the authors usie the old 1980's calculation method are coming up with 16.5%, which exceeds the peaks seen in the 1970's. On that basis, we're all all getting a raw deal, though a bit more raw & with sand thrown in for some.
- 5%
I was told my merit adjust was 4.39% on the same day that the year-over-year inflation was 6.0%. Only a 1.6% lost of real wage, not as bad as last year were it was a 5% decline in real wages. Better than being given the boot I guess.
@dby+1lDwsC4K. Same here. Agree with your comment.
Not that great considering inflation. Everyone has a choice tho. Ur either in or out. Ya know?
No, last year JF and DF told us all in model e that we would get giant, competitive merit raises like Tesla. It wasn’t true, I only got ~3.5% raise while some others I know got 4-5%. Oh well yet another disappointment.
- 9 percent … which is a decent merit except inflation was 9.9%.
I was pleasantly surprised. Got to give Ford leadership plenty of thanks for recognizing all of the worker contributions.
Doesn't matter. Last year I got the biggest merit in my career (non-promotion related). And then got SIRP'd in August. I was a multi-year TA. I wonder if my salary was a factor in my getting laid off.
Making more makes you a bigger target.