It has been 45 days since those accelerated merge talks were announced. So far nothing happened.
Is the merge not happening?
19 replies (most recent on top)
Why do we still need 3 HDD maker?
2 makes more sense.
2010 650 M HDD ship
2022 133 Million
2023 less
Tape drives are made by one company not 3. Does the world need 3 HDD maker?
@2ml "This forum is no different."
I do not agree. The WD forum IS different. Most speculations and rumors here end up being true. And this is not because the anonymous guys on this forum are geniuses. It is because the WD leadership is lousy, incompletent and extremely predictable
I'm willing to bet there are at most two people that keep posting this "Kioxia Merge Won't Happen", and their reasoning simply boil down to: "I haven't heard anything for x days", or "Why would Kioxia wants us?" or "Two pigeons don't make an eagle".
I don't have a crystal ball either, so I don't know if Kioxia-WDC merge will happen, but let me tell you this: I'm willing to put a bet that consolidation in NAND/SSD will happen just like it did with HDD and every other businesses in the US corporate world. The main reason is cost-cutting equals more profits for the shareholders. Why would they want to invest in two companies with two HRs, two ITs, and some overlap engineering functions when they could combine them? NAND/SSD is becoming commodity like HDD did 20 years ago. There is not much differentiations to justify the existence of multiple companies. When it comes to merge and acquisitions, they are driven mainly by business first, then maybe technology.
The truth is, most of us here have no control nor say on any of these merge and wfr decisions. The only control we have is to ensure ourself is marketable so we can find the next job when the time has come. That is why I've been advising younger people to ensure that they learn on the job and not just do whatever they told because "they get paid". In addition to money, you have to ensure that your skillset is always up-to-date and useful. Good luck!
I've seen Elliott operated before - if the merger is a way for them to make a single dime then its going to happen even if they have to go scorched earth to get there.
“ Kioxia is not HGST”
Obviously. But we can learn from the past.
People were convinced Hitachi would transfer the technology to Japan and cut us loose. Didn’t happen.
The point isn’t so much that because of that, jobs are safe. Again that should be obvious. But I’ll spell it out. The point is that the rumors, even the ones people take as a given, are often wrong.
It’s OK to speculate. But people who make big pronouncements about what is going to happen as though they know the future are not only fooling the themselves, they may be convincing others to make life changing decisions.
Let me repeat more simply. Anonymous comments left on Internet forums are often wrong. This forum is no different.
Ive seen a lot of up and down cycles. Yes, this one seems the worst. I’ve lost track of how many companies in HDD land have folded. There’s nothing magic about WD to keep it alive.
I’ve seen two major mergers, not counting WD buying Read Rite and Komag (I wasn’t WD then). I remember IBM preparing to sell off HDD on the early 90’s when it was packaged up as general product division (GPD). Didn’t happen.
There are always rumors. Most have been wrong. Even some that were “obviously true”.
These are uncertain times. If people are convincing themselves they “know” what’s happening and are posting here their beliefs as facts…well, they’ve got a lot to learn. More importantly people need to be reminded that rumors need to be taken with a dose of salt.
@1igh
I agree there will be layoffs in the US, but Japan is probably not safe, either. Japan's work law may work against them in this case. The merge of two companies due to declining business is exactly the type of event that justifies layoffs under such law, and it is a rare opportunity the management will be tempted to take.
@1uev Kioxia is not HGST
“ WD is not even serious, have not spin off HD unit yet”
Why would they spin that off before a merger was announced? Why make a drastic change based on the possibility of a merger? What happens if the merger doesn’t go through?
Simply put, they wouldn’t.
Think, McFly. Think.
“ CA salaries are nearly double that of Japan. ”
And, yet, all my friends at Odawara have new jobs because that site was closed.
Which is to say, if that logic held (and that was the fear at the time) HGST would have closed the US operations in favor of Japan.
TBH, no matter merge or not, this executive team can not make it success. Just f**ked up another company.
@1i...True. Additionally, CA salaries are nearly double that of Japan. Merger won't be good for Milpitas employees. Device will be wiped out completely
It think it is like marriage. The dream and engagement time is the sweetest, and often getting delayed is delayed as reality may not as rosy (for the stock)
I suspect that once the merger happens that there will be another round of layoffs since there will be duplicate products. It’s not easy to layoff people in Japan due to work laws so I can see full teams being eliminated in the US and elsewhere.
OP, kioxia and WD have been trying to merge for las 3 years.i let you to decide what to believe about these merge talks
Accelerated here means 2025 LOL
Hehe accelerated talks is just BS. WD is not even serious, have not spin off HD unit yet
It’s a merger of billion dollar companies. Not “hey, let’s buy a car”. It takes time.
Sure it may fall through. But there are a lot of details to work out. Including how to make a merger pass anti trust regulations in multiple countries.
Given the semiconductor hostility between the US and China, I suspect it will take some real finesse to get MOFCOM to approve a U.S. player becoming a huge flash company. MOFCOM held up the HGST sale for a long time after it was announced.
Agee Toshiba is the wildcard here. Still expect things to happen though I was wrong on the timing.
- Toshiba going private
- Toshiba holds 40.6% of Kioxia
- Toshiba removes activist shareholders
- WD debt leverage ratios modified
- deal or no deal, let’s be patient