Diehards say forever.
Some say 3-5 years, some say 5-10 max.
Most people I know are in the 3-5 years camp. Lately it feels like another 2 years would be an accomplishment.
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“I actually think it’s OK to blame the retirees. They can’t even handle a test email from the retiree mailing list.”
Hey, not all of us replied to that test :)
I actually think it’s OK to blame the retirees. They can’t even handle a test email from the retiree mailing list.
Retiree far as in should be retired officially since they're already retired in place. Lots of those.
It’s always those damn retirees.
Retiree fat?
5 more years tops. SAS has been destroyed by people giving away better products for free, not to mention smaller and more nimble startups eating its lunch.
The company could last longer if it cut some executive fat, some regional fat, retiree fat, operational fat.
Once SAS is sold, massive layoffs begin. Prepare yourselves.
The SAS CEO’s care for his employees is shown in the generous severance packages, up to one year’s salary. He doesn’t have to do that.
The decision to sell is a choice between holding a declining asset, which benefits his employees, or selling it, which benefits his children. I believe he, like most people, finds this an easy choice.
The SAS CEO believed in Viya, enough to hold on and give it a fair chance to slow the decline of SAS. Once it became clear that Viya had failed, I believe, he made his decision to sell.
An IPO is a guaranteed sale, at the best price the market will bear. It’s also an advertisement that the company is for sale. That may yet attract a private buyer, particularly as time gets closer.
One way or the other, I believe we won’t have long to wait. After advertising an IPO in 2025, the SAS CEO will look foolish if he does not sell.
If we get the long-predicted recession, the IPO market could be poor in 2925. That would provide a valid reason to delay to 2026 or 2027.
But I don’t see any reason SAS will not be sold within the next three years.
You definitely raise a point, yet have you considered that the company SAS may not remain on the campus after it’s purchased.
New owners would very likely cut at least 60% of the current staff and move to cubicle farms at much less expensive corp digs — especially at the aim is to simply milk out the remaining revenue stream without innovated any new products.
JG may have something else in mind for the real estate as well.
@1qxv+1v4TtrzL “ Why would he give much of a sh-t about the remaining employees beyond perhaps the ones that are close friends, and his family?”
Because some people do give a sh-t about others….
As long as JG and JS live on "campus", I do not see a sale happening. They are rich beyond imagination and do not need to sell. Why would either want to drive to/from their house and see how a buyer completely changed the landscape?
Old people tend to not like change. On the other hand, their heirs do not seem to have any skin in the SAS game and if that is true, they will dispose of it quickly when they assume control.
@1vbk+1v4TtrzL I don't believe that for a second.
As much as he talked about the importance of having a good workplace to retain his "most important asset", I think that was based on good business sense, not on some altruistic motive.
Why would he give much of a sh-t about the remaining employees beyond perhaps the ones that are close friends, and his family?
Or maybe, even with the layoffs (and toxic management, nepotism, and other drama), Goodnight is trying to drag it out as long as possible to continue paying the salaries of the most people. Who knows, really?
Each passing day SAS is worth less and the game clock is running down on the ROI period. But...I don't think the founders will sell. SAS is the only life they have. Old people tend to hang onto to their stuff as it reminds them of their glory days.
Preparations for a sale are being done for the sole reason of benefiting the heirs so they can dispose of SAS quickly once one or both founders pass.
I suspect SAS could be around for another 20 years or even more.
The question is, in what form?
20 years from now, I can totally imagine a few hundred million in $ changing hands between large companies who still have SAS deeply embedded in business that nobody dares to touch, and some company (almost certainly not SAS Institute) that happily takes the renewal fees but offers nothing but minimal skeleton support delivered by most likely by AI agents, and a few more AI agents handling the renewal fee processing and comms.
It'll quickly transition into something like this, the moment JG sells or the other obvious triggering event. How long that is, I would say 50% probability in next 2 years and 80% probability within 5 years.
at my company, we have a small group of loyal users left, but the youngest user is probably age 50. if those users work til age 65, probably our max is 15 years. min is probably 5 years. IT would like it to be sooner, but we move slowly.
So you label one side of the extreme as diehards. But you don’t label the other side of extreme (3 years).
Some say blah. Some say bloo. Some say diddy-diddy-bebop.
Way to ask a question.