To be transparent here, I am currently furloughed myself and have multiple contacts at a high level who are currently active.
Based on what I hear an accurate guess is probably that 25% of currently furloughed corporate employees will return when callbacks happen and the rest will be laid off. This isn't anything that hasn't been hinted already, but it's rather lame considering Macy's is opting to blow through people's unemployment benefits before actually being transparent with them on their status. I'd like to think a severance will be offered but can't say I trust that at it will.
I have director friends who know none of their employees will be returning but the company has directed them to be tight lipped about it. I think most can understand times are tough and jobs will be cut, but your employer not being honest with you is rather unethical.
Would also like to point out one thing most people don't know. One week after everyone was put on furlough, Gennette approved executive bonus in full for all director and up employees, the majority of which who were still active and receiving their pay as normal. And I'm not talking a reduce rate, they received FULL bonus. Talk about poor taste for a company who claimed it needed cash flow.
Again, we all know the company was going to be lighter in the fall but the reality is most will not be returning. Your company isn't going to be honest with you about this until you're actually told. It's a very tough job market out there right now but I advise you start exploring it if you haven't already.