Thread regarding SAS Institute layoffs

And now the chicken soup salesman.

"Another mistake is trusting and promoting the wrong people."

The Photographer and the Forester come to mind.

@2squ+1qREROCi

We don’t disagree.

Others have suggested that the CEO’s business decisions are a result of some kind of cognitive decline. My point was: we have no evidence of that; his decisions have been consistent for 50 years.

As you say, those decisions made SAS a one-hit wonder. When open source became a threat, other companies successfully pivoted. We did not. The people he promoted to leadership positions did not know how.

The decline of SAS is a source of great sadness, to those of us who spent our careers there. And as you say, the failure to pivot is ultimately the CEO’s responsibility.

"The decline of SAS is caused by the rise of open source."

I disagree. SAS could have remained relevant and competitive even with the rise of open source.

There are countless companies making great successes of markets that SAS had plenty of opportunity in...Adobe (campaign management), Microsoft (BI), Snowflake (data warehouseing), Palantir (fraud), Databricks (machine learning).

SAS squandered it's opportunities. Yes JG may deserve credit for building a successful product 50 years ago, but the sad truth is SAS was a one hit wonder. A great hit it was, but where other tech companies of that era have successfully pivoted to remain relevant, SAS did not and that is without doubt the failure of it's founder and CEO.

His biggest mistake is to rest on his laurels. Another mistake is trusting and promoting the wrong people.

JG deserves credit for taking Jim Barr’s architecture for US agricultural data, and generalizing it to handle business data in a global market. All leaders make mistakes. But JG’s business decisions, mistakes and all, generated steady growth for 40 years.

The biggest mistake was a consistent failure to promote the best people. Instead, SAS promoted people who said “yes”. When open source began to take market share, these leaders had no effective answer.

The decline of SAS is not due to any decline in its CEO. His decisions have been consistent for 50 years. The decline of SAS is caused by the rise of open source.

" It's a shame JG's ego apparently got in the way of what would have made good business sense."

This has been the case year, after year, after year.

@1ewr+1qREROCi

My last firsthand experience was five years ago. JG was certainly mentally sharp at that time.

He showed some physical aging at that event, sufficient to explain infrequent public appearances. If I didn’t feel good, I wouldn’t do many events either.

Poor business decisions are not a recent symptom. SAS never developed an answer to open source. That’s been its biggest problem for a long time 😔.

My point was that, although many have suggested a significant cognitive decline, we’ve seen no evidence. Show me the evidence, and I’ll believe.

Until then, we’ve seen plenty of evidence that JG is trying to sell or IPO his company. So that’s what I believe.
And I believe he’s sharp enough not to delay for long.

Are you sure JG is still mentally sharp? Can you say that from first hand experience? His lack of public appearances and countless poor business decisions made in recent years may suggest otherwise.

I have no doubt that he is a genuinely caring and good person, but I think there are growing questions over his fitness for critical decision making.

Broadcom did not offer a high price. If they had, SAS would have been sold. JG may believe an IPO will bring a higher price. It also advertises that the company is in play.

Many people believe that JG will literally keep SAS “until they’re throwing dirt over me”, clinging to power like some maddened king refusing to give up his rule.

But there’s no evidence for that. Instead, we have evidence that SAS is being positioned for a sale or IPO.

There are good reasons to do this:

1. The best time to sell a declining asset is ASAP. The longer you wait, the more money you lose.

2. SAS would be a terrible asset to inherit. It can’t be divided, and none of the heirs can afford to pay the estate taxes. They’d be forced to sell it, perhaps into a bad market; or put it in a trust and watch it decline further.

3. I don’t believe JG is having fun. Being CEO of a growing company is fun. Presiding over layoffs is not. If that became your job, for how many years would you want to do it?

JG is physically aged, but mentally sharp, and retains his excellent command of numbers. Like all fathers, he wants to do the best thing for his children. And he doesn’t like presiding over layoffs; who would?

For all these reasons, I believe JG has already made his decision. He just hasn’t found his buyer yet. That may take another two to three years, depending on market conditions. I don’t see this dragging out longer.

I wish all my friends at SAS get as many years as they need.

Now we have to contend with "deaths of despair".

https://www.uclahealth.org/news/column-what-does-deaths-despair-narrative-leave-out

@1abq+1qREROCi, this table is more relevant in that it displays conditional life expectancy given that you already made it to a certain age. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

https://www.simplyinsurance.com/average-us-life-expectancy-statistics/#section-3

"So perhaps those who are in their mid-50s or older, will be able to ride it out to retirement after all."

Not if they get layoff. Mid-50s and older is a high risk age group to get layoff.

Yes, I think that's probably a pretty reasonable prediction.

And the average life expectancy for an 81 year old male, is another 8 years. For a billionaire, no doubt a fair bit more, given the healthcare he can afford.

So perhaps those who are in their mid-50s or older, will be able to ride it out to retirement after all.

The reasons why the Broadcom sale fell through are the same reasons that an IPO will never happen.

1. Goodnight thinks SAS is worth at least $20 billion. I'm sure Broadcom didn't offer more than $15B and he's likely to get much less from a public sale ($10 - $12B at most).

2. Broadcom would have fired lots of people--just like it's done at VMWare and other acquisitions--to cut costs. Any competent SAS Board of Directors answerable to shareholders would do the same. I just don't think Goodnight can stand to watch the SAS culture that's he's received so many accolades for unravel while he's around to watch.

So Goodnight knows what he needs to do: Sell or IPO. But I think he just can't bring himself to do either. Sure, he'll continue to go through the motions to be IPO-ready so it will be easier for his heirs to sell the company, either privately or publicly. But nothing is really changing while he's alive.