If the 11k is right, and I cut it back to 9k in my initial analysis, but using the 11k student count, how much monthly revenue has been cut? Depends on program mix and other things, but $1,500 per student per month is likely a little low and $2,000 per student per month is likely a bit high. So the monthly cut in revenue is between $16.5M and $22.0M (between $198M and $264M annualized). That's a lot of money when CCi had under $30M in the bank at the end of last quarter, and CCi has tapped out the credit line, and there is little chance to sell stock at this point, since it is worthless. Oh, and do I need to mention that CCi has been operating at a loss for some time, seemingly forever. $111M loss in FY 2011; $10M loss in FY 2012; $2M loss in FY 2013; $94M loss for the first 3 quarters of FY 2014, and my guess is that the losses will up over $300M once the $200M goodwill charge is taken, among other issues. Yes, yes, I know that it's largely non-cash in terms of tax benefits and goodwill, but that does not explain the entire history of massive losses. How long can this continue, even if the DOE doesn't delay funding?
9 replies (most recent on top)
If you plan on the worst case scenario, then you are doing all you can. If you are planning on anything else, you deserve what you get.
Anonymous23733 - there's a big difference between people getting the axe tomorrow or a year from now. This board exists for people to share what they're heard related to layoffs. Most of us are on here to try to get a sense of how quickly this is happening. We know enough to take any job offered to us, but we still want to plan based upon the likelihood of different scenarios playing out. It DOES matter to us.
People understand that CCI is in close/sake mode, right? None of this matters. This brand won't exist in a year, no matter what. Why are we debating nothing? It's like still debating whether Colorado should legalize marijuana. What's done is done. No need to continue arguing about it.
I always say that the market knows. At 20 cents a share, I hold out very little hope at this point for anything but bankruptcy. Nobody wants the stock, ergo, it's worthless.
Sooner or later, no profits cause a problem. Add in the stock dive before the ED came in and that equals company going bye bye.
Anonymous23680- CCi has already been limping along for a long, long time .
They were already having serious cash problems before the ED laid down the hammer. They would have limped along for a little while, maybe a year. But without a credit source (which was a pre-existing issue) and a declining revenue model, the goose was cooked.
I actually they they could have limped along for a long, long time. Look at what's happening. And they still have 16,000 students. To me, that's an insanely high number, considering these students are unlikely to get degrees, since they are selling or closing inside of 5 months.
It can't and it won't. The ED is actually doing CCI employees a big favor: it is shooting them in the head instead of in the thigh. Some people will find new jobs and be fine, but most of the higher paid enrollment won't. Telemarketing for a company that the government shut down usually doesn't equal good paying next job. The education industry is retracting, not growing.