The question boils down to who will IBM contract with to build P10??? Perhaps GF can get to 10 NM but that is an open question. The other issue will Be the manufacturer will have to be USA owned, as IBM wants all of the Govt business that it can get. (just remember the national lab’s win with P9). Will IBM bring P10 back in house (unlikely due to low volumes), or outsource to a custom builder promising IBM’s labs technical innovation. Otherwise Power is looking at a bleak future HW wise. IBM could certainly IP the whole enchilada out and just pocket the IP revenue. I believe China has already licensed some of the Power Architecture via the “open Power consortium”
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I read an article, i think it was in extreme tech, that P10 work is likely to go to TSMC.