Like the nuclear business, power business will shift to services led. It is not if, but when it makes no sense to build bigger and better GT, ST, generators when alternatives like solar and wind will make them go the way of landlines and Blockbuster. Someone in GE modeling the future of energy did not understand how disruption looks from the inside.
When the shift happens, why do services for just GE assets? Find someone already doing it for broader market and sell them on value of installed base. They can make more money than G.E. can ever make due to economies of scale and focus on services. BHGE has a division doing this, ABB, Emerson, and even Rockwell would love to jump into this lucrative market and pay off $30B pension obligations. May be there are Chinese players too with money wanting to enter if Mr. T. let’s them.
Spinning off Fieldcore, layoffs, retirements and departures will destroy the competitive advantage of OEM services offerings. Why pay premium to GE when you can get same services for less from aftermarket players?
Major shakeup in power likely if you consider the worst case scenario of zero new turbines in a given year. Top 3 players will be down to one. Trade war, recession, breakthrough in storage, major design flaws, French government intervention, price cuts by competition can be the tipping point that make this business go from profitable to boat anchor in a hurry.
Could they turn power into services behemoth? Not likely with current cash situation. They should have done what IBM did in 90s and retool for services, time to do it was before the crisis. Elephants can dance, but not on empty stomach.