Who’s ready for a conspiracy theory? Anyone? Anyone?
What if everything is going exactly how it is supposed to go? What if it was the plan all along?
What if there was a plan to sell out years ago? Because the Cabela’s family did not want their name to live on in a business that they were no longer connected to? What if they wanted to sell out, but they wanted to make sure it was a merger or acquisition that would swallow up the Cabela’s name and remove it from the business?
There are no Cabela’s children tied visibly to the business. It seems the founders and their heirs would prefer to see the place sold, take their money and get on with their lives. Have their fame dissolve away so they no longer have the social pressure of the business and the name. “Be brief. Be blunt. Be gone”, becomes unnecessary if you are no longer famous and people aren’t dying to talk to you.
But before they do that, they’d want some things in order.
They’d want to make sure they have a lot of locations. A lot of square feet to sell. They’d want to make sure that the overall package was worth considerable money. Maybe it was never about creating profitable locations. It was just about adding square feet that drove up company value.
They’d want to make sure that they had the opportunity to complete some outstanding projects. Like the Cabela’s family museum. That’d be a priority. Work with the city and the contractors to make sure that gets done. Get the 50th anniversary done. Make it huge. Check.
They’d want to make sure that the business is sold to the highest bidder – one who will replace the Cabela’s name with their own. One who is a competitor and has been dying to flick Cabela’s off the map. Maybe by saying “We’re going to Florida!” really loud in a recorded shareholder meeting, they could plant seeds and inspire action by BP ahead of time, by way of a corporate smirk and shoulder poke. Take that, BP. Whatcha gonna do 'bout it?
They’d want to spend that final 6-12 months owning the business paring down expenses – pare them down to nothing. Make sure that bidder coming in has the impression that the business is doing better than it is.
They’d want to make sure that it appeared “out of their hands”. They’d want to look like they put up a good fight, but in the end, just were beat out by bigger business. Victims that would NEVER allow this to happen to the community and outfitters. After all, they (Cabela’s) want to be able to stay in this area. That wouldn’t work if there was evidence that they were willing to flush their outfitters down the toilet in exchange for their big retirement check when they sold out. They need to be viewed as the heroes who valiantly fought the wall street dragons but lost. Not the family and leadership team who were playing a 5-year game of increasing company value so they could dump it , line their pockets and go back to living anonymous lives. (in all fairness, this ramp down of personnel, staged over several months, is a help to the community and they don’t have to do it – could just take the money and run)
They’d want to make sure that whatever was bought out was challenging – don’t make it too easy. They worked hard for years, being very competitive with companies like Bass Pro. They wouldn’t gift wrap and hand them all their best stuff. Instead, they’d cut and whittle away at things to ensure that those buyers would have their work cut out for them – just like they did for all those years.
Sound crazy? Maybe. Here’s more:
Executives are let go and continue to live here. Multi-million dollar guys. Still here. As “strategic partners” or something. Why? Don’t you guys have stuff to do? Why is it worth it to stay here? What’s the pay off?
Elliot doesn’t own the 11% quoted back in October. They are now in the 8% range. Public info you can find on Yahoo Finance, yet no one is reporting that their “big stake” was just a flash in the pan. A few months. That’s it. The number of Cabela’s “allies” from the past, when combined, own enough stock to make Elliot’s share a non-threat. Also researchable – just check the “major holders” section of Yahoo Finance, and then do some Google searching of the connections between those companies and Cabela’s – and history of share ownership. Decisions are not being made to appease Elliot because 8% is not a threat. They are decisions being made by the company. Using the prior % ownership by Elliot created a great story – a good excuse for things to change in a way that would benefit shareholders but hurt the Sidney community and a whole lot of outfitters. But the % is not high enough to justify the actions being taken. Make no mistake. These are CABELA’S leadership decisions. Not victim decisions. Cabela’s leaders own the helm. There are no pirates on the ship today. There weren’t yesterday, either. They were invented villains to justify the company’s decisions that were in the shareholder’s interests, but not the outfitters – not the community – and not the customers.
News stories over the years show that Cabela’s leadership has had connections with some of the companies that are now “out to get us”. Research it. Goldman Sachs. Shapiro/Elliot. These are not strangers. We know them. Google shows history of connections there. Not even privileged or hard to find information.
Highest level leaders aren’t leaving like they should be, given the current state of things. Too many people staying. What has been promised? House bought out at full 2015 market rate? Longer severance? Has to be a reason that people who never liked Sidney in the first place are now suddenly fighting to stay on, when we know they don’t like it here, the spouse doesn’t like it here and the kids don’t like it here. Cabela’s has always been a stepping stone to somewhere else. Why wait until the fallout happens and home values drop by 75%? The average severance would not balance out what you would lose on your house. Even if BP picks you up, they won’t pick up the $250 -$700 G you just lost on your property. When we look at the people that have voluntarily chosen to leave, vs the ones that are choosing to stay – it doesn’t make sense. Why are they staying? What is the payoff? What do they GET?
There have been rumors of the down-scaling so the company can re-privatize… but think about that. Consider everything that was just detailed. Does that make sense? Think of the cuts. Think of the talent that’s been selected for the chopping block. Not the dead weight – there’s always room to cut dead weight – but the examples of cutting TALENT. Every one of us can think of several instances where TALENT was marched out the door and dead weight was held onto. Are they keeping the cream of the crop? Are they building a business that, once privatized, would drive success? If they are not, what would justify that? Why would you keep something that will require a battle to keep it successful?
Maybe all of this is why Tommy can go enjoy a vacation. Why leaders can smile as they walk the halls. Maybe it was never their job to keep it alive. Instead, to slowly and subtly kill it and make it look like an outside villain (Elliot/Bass Pro) was the cause. Give the entire company someone to hate that isn’t Cabela’s. Instead, we hate consulting firms and Elliot. Elliot no longer owns their big stake in Conagra, either. Conagra made their decisions to cut people, close facilities - and then Elliot went away. Do these outfits really just buy up a bit of stock, throw some muscle around and then disappear? Maybe they aren’t the “activist investors” that they are marketed as. Maybe they are investors-for-sale, who can come in and create the illusion of forcible takeovers and required changes – when the leaders of a company are too weak to state their decisions, own them and deal with the consequences. Maybe being a victim is easier.
Just maybe.