Excerpt from Vince Martin of seekingalpha.com. "...There's an argument that Apollo is priced for bankruptcy, and that its balance sheet and still-positive earnings provide downside cushion, allowing investors to gamble on a turnaround here.
I'm not buying that argument. This company is a mess, regulators are circling, management seems to be flailing, and no matter the standard calculation of enterprise value, liquidation value here still is essentially zero. Apollo has shown an odd disinterest in shareholder value - despite being controlled by a three-person trust who would seem at least somewhat incentivized to protect share value - and at this point, beset by regulators, the company likely can't do much to return what cash it has to shareholders in a bid to protect its remaining value.
I'm not sure APOL will or should go bankrupt, particularly any time soon, and a stagnant, slowly declining share price (see Bridgepoint Education (NYSE:BPI)) for an example seems the most likely outcome. APOL still looks like a value trap - as it has for several quarters - and even a cursory look at management and the operating business should send investors fleeing..."