Grateful to have had a mostly successful and moderately long career at SAS. But time runs out on all games. While I hope for the best this coming year, I'm also preparing for the worst. Not seeing anything that inspires confidence that the issues discussed here (ad nauseum) are going to be corrected.
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“At this time, Viya and the new AI efforts are being presented as potential growth stories. If SAS waits a couple more years, they’ll need to deliver actual growth.”
Hang on. HOW long has Viya been in the marketplace? Since at least 2017, I think. The point at which Viya needed to demonstrate more than potential growth was several years ago.
I believe SAS will try to IPO in 2025, unless there is a private offer. If the market goes down, that could delay it until 2026.
At this time, Viya and the new AI efforts are being presented as potential growth stories. If SAS waits a couple more years, they’ll need to deliver actual growth.
I don’t believe in either growth story. So I don’t believe SAS will wait that long.
I wish that SAS was having a better ending; we all worked so hard to make it succeed. But I think SAS employees need to make their plans, and I sure wish you all the best.
Spinning off JMP would certainly be best for JMP employees. That would remove restrictions, enabling JMP to grow by competing against SAS in Business Intelligence and the Cloud.
The most likely buyer of SAS is an acquirer of declining revenue streams, like Broadcom or private equity. So the alternative is that the buyer treats JMP the same as SAS, laying off, outsourcing, and milking the revenue stream until it dies.
No one knows the future of JMP.
"The difference is that JMP competes against SAS in the Analytics market."
IPO or bought, why would new management want a portfolio containing competing products? Wouldn't that be corrected asap? Cheapest solution is sell JMP asap?
“JMP has enjoyed years of a parasitic existence with SAS picking up the tab for… JMP's real estate costs, utilities, HCC usage, RFC usage, etc.”
But that’s also true of Risk, or Fraud,, or any other SAS product. The difference is that JMP competes against SAS in the Analytics market.
In that market, they both compete against R and Python. And there just isn’t much money to be made, competing against free software.
You can put a UI on your analytics and drop your price, as JMP did. Or you can ride your legacy renewal revenue stream, as SAS did.
That’s how the owners divided the Analytics market. But the Business Intelligence market belongs to SAS, and the Cloud belongs to SAS. JMP does not compete in these far larger markets.
We can all wish that the owners did not divide their company in this way. But they had the right.
And it could have worked out for them, financially. But that required SAS to execute in BI and the Cloud.
"it would have been impossible for JMP to make a profit given the huge number of people who worked directly on it and all the SAS personnel and facilities it used."
Exactly. JMP has enjoyed years of a parasitic existence with SAS pucking up the tab foe numerous items. Doubtful that JMP's real estate costs, utilities, HCC usage, RFC usage, etc are broken down to the granular level necessary to compute expenses that belong to JMP and JMP alone. That alone would be a nightmare of accounting. Not to mention JMP enjoyed higher shelf conferences and more expensive give away bling.
Someone said JMP sales are growing. That is a distractionary statement. Ummm, growing sales should be a given. Even Viya can boast about revenue growth. Big whip. JMP's net profit is the metric of importance. No one EVER talks about that and likely for good reason.
The issues described on this site will not be corrected under current owners, because they are preparing their company for sale.
2025 is the most likely year of the sale, because a) it is the first year in which an IPO is possible, b) the value of the V9 revenue stream is declining, c) Republican victories are generally favorable to financial markets, and d) at this time, SAS can credibly claim potential growth in both Viya and the new AI efforts.
Two years from now, the V9 revenue stream will be less valuable, market conditions may be less favorable, and claims of potential growth may be less credible.
Market conditions could deteriorate, and postpone a sale or IPO. But otherwise, I don’t see any reason this process will drag out much longer.
"It’s in the financial interest of both owners to sell JMP as part of SAS."
Just for the sake of argument, let's assume that you are right. Then what makes you think for a second that JS cares about SAS or his financial interest? If his financial interests were paramount to him, he never would have started competing with SAS by starting JMP almost 40 years ago.
He is doing his own thing, competing with SAS, copying SAS code to incorporate new methods into JMP and generally having fun doing what he wants while still becoming a multibillionaire (albeit at a reduced level than if he never started JMP).
Back when I could see the sales numbers (for whatever that was worth), before I retired, it would have been impossible for JMP to make a profit given the huge number of people who worked directly on it and all the SAS personnel and facilities it used. If it is profitable (big if), it has to be profitable a much lower level than V9 SAS.
I suspect that SAS and JMP will split because JS gets to keep his baby for another decade or so and JG gets more SAS equity in exchange. Why else would they already be taking steps to separate SAS and JMP?
It’s in the financial interest of both owners to sell JMP as part of SAS.
The legacy SAS revenue stream is declining (relative to its costs). But JMP sales are growing.
JMP, Risk, Fraud, and the new AI initiatives all make legacy SAS more marketable.
"JS will buy JMP from JG"
Seems like a no brainier so why has that not already happened?
My guesses are:
(1) No VRBP based simply on the fact that I think it would have been offered already if that was an option on the table.
(2) No IPO. They will announce they are IPO-ready, but "market conditions" aren't right.
(3) No sale, because the asking price won't be met and Dr. G doesn't want to let it go for what SAS is now worth.
So, one more year of uncertainty, flat or declining revenues, and some targeted layoffs.
Pure conjecture, but here goes:
JS will buy JMP from JG. JS will grossly overpay using his equity in SAS to save his baby, and JG will be free to dispose of SAS in any way he sees fit.
SAS will not offer and IPO; it will be outright sold.
There will be lots of involuntary retirements.
It might not all happen in 2025, but those seem like distinct possibilities.
Right. Will this be the year SAS goes public in some capacity? Will SAS be sold? Will JMP be sold? Will there be a voluntary retirement program? It feels like one or more of those things will happen.