SAS has promised to be “IPO-ready” in 2025.
That doesn't mean an IPO will take place, and some of us believe it won't. But it makes sense to plan ahead, if you may be affected.
How would an IPO affect SAS employees?
If SAS IPOs in 2025, what will it look like in 2026 or 2027?
“ The effect is not significant. (A Statistics joke.)”
Any joke you need to explain is insignificant (a recursive statistics joke)
The effect is not significant. (A Statistics joke.)
We agree it’s possible that owners are selling a minority stake.
It may be that in his 82nd year, the majority owner has decided that what is missing from his life is a boss, and that he’d really like to report to a Board of Directors.
But that’s not the way I’d bet 😁.
There won't be an IPO in 2025, 2026, or 2027. The guy is stringing everyone along.
Broadcom was probably being strung along as well.
"SAS was talking to Broadcom"
sounds like that is ancient history at this point. Plus we don't know how far it went. Talking to one prospect (that we know of) in any sales process provides more information/feedback to consider if nothing else. Who knows what the owners think or plan now.
"Perhaps because the owner still enjoys running it?"
Then remove JMP from the "for sale" preparations.
Can not have your cake and eat it too....
"No reason to assume 100% of the shares would be for sale."
My reason is that SAS was talking to Broadcom. Broadcom doesn't buy minority stakes.
As @gax+1w0wP0CK said, an IPO could float a small % of shares. No reason to assume 100% of the shares would be for sale.
"The sad reality is that net profit per product is not known by most employees so all they have to go on(for predicting their individual post IPO future) is gut."
Viya con Viscera - Go with your gut.
I agree with @lad+1w0wP0CK’s first reply. An IPO is an exit strategy, like selling to Broadcom.
Publicizing “IPO-readiness” advertises that the company is for sale. If no private buyer makes an acceptable offer, an IPO may bring a better price.
An IPO is slower than a private sale, but it brings the same result. Once 100% of the shares are on the open market, Broadcom or anybody else can purchase control. And any buyer will manage the company to maximize their profits.
Perhaps because the owner still enjoys running it?
"JMP is the safest part of SAS. It is profitable, and its sales have increased steadily for many years.
It is one of the few parts of SAS that would be easy to sell or IPO separately."
***
Assuming all the above is true, then why has JMP not already been sold? Most would agree that selling JMP by itself is the best way to secure a viable future for JMP.
“The sad reality is that net profit per product is not known by most employees…”
The sadder reality is that no one at SAS knows even the revenue per product, thanks to bundled sales and the ability of salespeople to allocate the price of any given bundle in any way they see fit. Unless this practice has ended, anyone who tells you they know the profit per product is lying—definitely to you and possibly to themselves.
“ If you still work for SAS, have a plan for your future. If that plan involves SAS, you do not have a plan.”
The planmaster has spoken.
My plan does involve SAS as well as other backups. I assure you I do have a plan whether you dum--ss short sited comment thinks so or not.
"The Art Department and JMP are safe for another year."
JMP is the safest part of SAS. It is profitable, and its sales have increased steadily for many years.
It is one of the few parts of SAS that would be easy to sell or IPO separately. An acquirer might well do that.
Who has a few billion in cash? Very few.
An IPO allows one guy to cash the other guy out, and/or provides something to borrow against for "allowances".
The effect of an IPO is that short-term goals are pursued at the expense of long-term ones.
"Word is already trickling through the halls of SAS that the IPO has been pushed to 2026."
What a relief! The Art Department and JMP are safe for another year.
An IPO will quickly eliminate the loser products. Here today gone tomorrow due to inpatient share holders wanting a return on their investment.
The sad reality is that net profit per product is not known by most employees so all they have to go on(for predicting their individual post IPO future) is gut.
If you still work for SAS, have a plan for your future. If that plan involves SAS, you do not have a plan. Good luck to all!
Word is already trickling through the halls of SAS that the IPO has been pushed to 2026. The Bugatti will have to wait I guess...
Typically for a public company, the Board (who represents stockholders/owners) wants professional Management to be "aligned" to "stockholder value". That means they are heavily incentivized to take various actions (sometimes very short term oriented) that will increase the stock price. The stock price is based on expectations of future earnings. So if layoffs improves that picture, an "efficient market" responds quickly.
Of course, "IPO" may not mean a lot of liquidity, and people here are probably making too many assumptions. One mistake in all of the comments is probably assuming there is "one SAS entity" that goes public and most of those shares are available to the public. That seems incredibly unlikely to me. Instead, I'd assume various scenarios like the founders retain 90% of the stock (only releasing some small % to IPO), or there is class A and B stock, and the public shares have no power over decisions, and/or there is a holding company that controls a subsidiary that has partially gone public (raising some funds but not giving up control). There are probably various other scenarios possible. For example, suppose Viya related business really has been having 100% growth (from a very small base). The holding company could have that business go public with some AI story. Lots of money is raised to try to give it a boost, all the problems talked about here aren't really known, maybe this small business has more of a chance, who knows. The holding company may or may not take other decisions about layoffs not related to the (on paper) subsidiary that is partially public. In short, don't assume the SAS we think we know is the SAS that goes IPO as some kind of monolithic financial entity. It will be more "creative" than that.
IPO or private sale, the clock is ticking, it's anyone's guess which it will be. I suspect changes, layoffs, staff reductions, etc. due to a private sale will be faster and more ruthless. An IPO will probably have similar cuts and downsizing but at a slower rate. Do others agree?