I know I am and I know some people who are, but I also know a lot who are happy here. How? Being overworked is the norm. More responsibilities keep piling up, but pay stays the same. Once a certain pay level is reached, RAs happen, and someone cheaper takes over. Managers take credit for successes, while mistakes are blamed on others. So what's there to stick around for?
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It is the same in other companies. therefore people stay
Even if he did bring manufactoring back to Ohio, it does not translate that it would create manufactoring jobs. Robots can do most of the work, and only need a few programmers employed to ensure they do not break.
People miss this. They thimk that removing low cost jobs will bring back their high paying jobs, It won't. It will just mean neither Americans or externals will have jobs.
Speaking as a former IBM employee of a non-US company, there was never any 'tariff' on my work. Software isn't imported like steel or TV's, people in other countries check into the same github instance as Americans and....that's it.
Every non-US IBMer is an employee of "IBM ", a wholly-owned subsidiary of IBM Corp. Transferring software between different parts of a public corp isn't covered by any of the current tariffs and it's incredibly unlikely it ever will be. Trump didn't win because people give a sh*t about IBM outsourcing tech jobs to India, he won because they somehow believe he'll bring refrigerator manufacturing back to Ohio (even though he failed to do that in his first term). That gets the blue collar votes.
Tariffs will just be viewed as a cost of doing business, and be passed thru to the end user. Since almost every major corporation has offshored labor, for lower costs, there will be very little advantage gained or lost vs everyone else. Note this is an end user statement. The CFO’s on the other hand, depending on the tariff rates, will have lost the easy offshoring cost lowering lever. Instead they will most likely accelerate investment into the AI labor replacement lever, which they will be able to base as a service on shore thus avoiding tariffs. The net is commodity labor will be disadvantaged and replaced sooner. Coding AI is the most likely bullseye target due to its large SW margins. This is not just an IBM trend, but rather an industry trend. Google, Microsoft, Oracle, etc etc are all executing this same play. The net effect is revenue will move back onshore, but labor will not.
Oh sweet baby Jesus please tell me Indian devs are getting hit with a 100% tariff.
In addition to 10-20% on Europe and the U.K., he has threatened 60% on China, and possibly 200% on some Mexican products. India will be in between the high and the low
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-uk-eu-trade-tariffs-135458858.html
The layoff/offshoring strategy may come to an abrupt stop as the new USA administration comes up to speed. The reason being “the sweetness of low labor costs being enjoyed by IBM for the past decade may soon be replaced by the bitterness of a 20% + import tariff on goods and services”. Time will tell, but the echo of the 1920’s trade war are getting louder, and trade wars don’t help anyone. The new economic advisors have said the VAT taxes imposed by trade partners are in the cross hairs. This issue has been simmering for quite a long time, and I fear it’s about to get ugly
There will be layoffs in 2025 & 2026. These have nothing to do with the whole AI thing. Did you see the last jobs report from the gov? It was 12K hires. It hasn't been that bad since 2020. And considering the last 17 jobs reports before it were revised down the next month, what do you think folks will do when the numbers go negative (which they will)? IBM has existed on accounting gimmicks and tax shuffle. The company is over valued. In order to keep your hot air balloon floating another 15 minutes, you will throw the burner and propane over to keep things going. IBM is in the same balloon. Whatever can be done to reduce costs and make the books look good, they will do. Keep you eye on their offices and real estate and what they are selling, ending leases, and keeping. IBM dumped property in Houston, in North Carolina, Miami, Canada, and all over in the last 24 months. Look at Dodge / Chrysler. Their parent company just sold their proving grounds in Arizona where they test their vehicles. That means R & D is going overseas. I do believe IBM is going to "Halliburton" in the next few years.