China will keep delaying approval and Broadcom can't afford waiting and will give up eventually. The big stock price drop and high volume since Oct.17 is the clear signal.
In several days, Broadcom will announce that the deal will be postponed for at least one month, or even more.
Mark the post and come back here in several days.
21 replies (most recent on top)
i bet the deal would fail. china would not approve it because china does not like losing face. china would revenge.
They will continue to say oct 30th until they file an extension... if they didnt then the stock would be hit even harder. Letters, like others have said, are contingent on closing the deal. Do i think it will go through, yes. Do i think it will be by monday... everyone else's guess is as good as mine. if you know for certain, then its not a guess but if you know for certain (like for real, not just assuming) then you are privy to some info others are not. please violate the nda and share ;) i dare you.
I've said this before, but I believe the deal will close. Not because I have any inside information, but because, having worked at other tech companies run by Asians, I understand Hoc's cultural imperative not to lose face. I'm pretty skeptical that he would have been so adamant about the deal closing if he wasn't very sure. Whether that means he plans some business maneuver to avoid the PRC blocking the deal (including paying the resultant fines) or whether it's because he has some inside information about the approval, I don't know. But people with that cultural background don't make angry tirades about something where there's more than an infinitesimal chance they'll be wrong. It just doesn't happen. Since no waffle words were used, I'm betting on the deal closing. Maybe not Monday, but within the next 60 days.
I didn't believe you until I saw they you wrote the word "period" in the title and that swayed me. If you are convinced enough to write the word "period" that so am I.
It will happen, BigCO will always get their way. Look at MSFT/Blizzard, BKI/ICE.. they all happened.
Three key points:
China will not approve it quickly in the context of tech/chip war;
Broadcom knows they can't anger China to risk their BC revenue;
The market also knows it.
it will be pending for long time. Fail or not, I don't know. That is it.
@OP+1phlL3WP @OP
the deal will be delayed and fail eventually. period.
Did you see the corporate language use? Not the exact word as following but the gist of it is as following.
"The acquisition is accomplished by a series of merger of the holding companies "
I am pretty sure they can park different kind of assets and different places, in these holding lot longer for any approvals to come through.
How many 'random current' Broadcom employees refer to themselves as AVGO instead of Broadcom employees? Prove it.
Why not they are proud of their ticker, it could be you too. unless you prefer otherwise.
'Random current AVGO employee here. From the looks of things internally, it’s full speed ahead."
full speed ahead towards getting closure on oct 30th?
Yes. Monday is the day we are planning around. Could that change? I mean, I guess, but they are playing a great game of poker if that is the case.'
How many 'random current' Broadcom employees refer to themselves as AVGO instead of Broadcom employees? Prove it.
why vmw spokesman, not broadcom. just listen to what Hock said in q3 call.
also, money never lies since no one will make joke with their own money.
everyone has to look busy to make the big boss happy, while the big boss is in headache. lol.
@zha+1phlL3WP I agree with you.
The news about China delay first came out last tuesday.
On last wedensday vmware spokesperson confirmed the deal is still on track for oct 30th close. If it was uncertain, why would they say so?
Random current AVGO employee here. From the looks of things internally, it’s full speed ahead."
full speed ahead towards getting closure on oct 30th?
Yes. Monday is the day we are planning around. Could that change? I mean, I guess, but they are playing a great game of poker if that is the case.
"Random current AVGO employee here. From the looks of things internally, it’s full speed ahead."
full speed ahead towards getting closure on oct 30th?
Random current AVGO employee here. From the looks of things internally, it’s full speed ahead.
Correct and the the management who railed behind this deal with their secrecy and ndas will be facing us. Karma is a beautiful thing. Meetings will be a joy!
Agree. Anyone sincerely believes the deal can be closed in Oct.30? No wishful thinking.
letter doesn't mean anything. it will be voided if deal fails.
100% postpone.
Letters are contingent on the deal closing dude
Letters don’t mean sh-t
Zero chance. Tan Hock does not backtrack. Wishful thinking. Letters have gone out.
No.