To get a good idea of where auto sales are headed, you can look to several metrics but the ones that are key are inflation, consumer debt and the current sales data for cars.
Consumer Debt
Mortgage Rates Jump to the Highest Level in 23 Years
https://mishtalk.com/economics/mortgage-rates-jump-to-the-highest-level-in-23-years/
If you take a really good look at this data, you can see that home owners are getting crushed, with the highest debt to income levels in history. Wages, are not even close to keeping up with house prices. Then consider higher insurance, tax and interest rates. The housing collapse will greatly eclipse the GFC.
Consumer Debt
According the Federal Reserve, consumer debt is $17.06 TRILLION!!!
Total Household Debt Reaches $17.06 Trillion in Q2 2023; Credit Card Debt Exceeds $1 Trillion
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2023/20230808
Credit card interest rates are 22%!
Paying credit card debt down is getting harder
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/paying-credit-card-debt-down-is-getting-harder/ar-AA1h9EES#image=1
Inflation
The fallacy of Year-over-year inflation reporting is EXTREMELY misleading. First of all, energy and food is not in the data. Second, the number is year over year rather than accumulated inflation. The real, accumulated inflation could be something like 22%, but it's reported as "CPI for all items rises 0.6% in August" (see bls.gov). Do you pay 0.6% more for items on Amazon.com or at the grocery store? When people are paying 2x for goods and services, they are not going to have money for a new car. Which brings us back to that record level of consumer debt.
Current auto sales and the sales trend
If you look at current sales, the picture is rosy. "U.S. new vehicle sales of 1,341,169 units for the month of August represented an increase of 2.0% from July 2023, and an increase of 16.2% from one year ago in August 2022 when supply chains continued to restrain production."
https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-usa-by-month
Consumer Outlook
"The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 67.7 this month from a final reading of 69.5 in August. That was below the median forecast of 69.1 among economists polled by Reuters."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-consumer-sentiment-slips-again-but-inflation-outlook-improves/ar-AA1gM8WS
The consumer debt picture is grim and when combined with "sticky inflation", you will see auto sales drop considerably. This is especially true when you consider the cost of groceries and gasoline, which isn't counted in the CPI data. Both of which have doubled in many cases and continue to escalate. If we have another housing collapse (the data supports this) and student loan borrowers can't keep up (wages will be garnished!) it will only add fuel to the plummeting auto sales data. The auto sales data paints a rosy picture but I believe it will turn on a dime by January once those student loans and 22% credit card start to harm people as they get hit with higher and higher food and energy costs. This of course will lead to MASS LAYOFFS in the auto industry!