I would expect that managers need to provide information about their direct reports and team responsibilities and skills. Based on this data, upper management could then decide who is less important for the company's current goals.
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I would say there is a higher chance of laying off new employees. First, it should be cheaper due to the notice period or severance pay. Second, new employees usually have higher salaries than older employees.
However, a company should not only consider cost savings when making layoff decisions. In cases of negative earnings, the priority should be to avoid long-term or risky investments and to focus on low-hanging fruits to keep the crucial business running.
If a new employee has the skills needed to generate revenue/margin in the short-term, it is wise to keep them. On the other hand, if an older, experienced employee is involved in non-crucial or uncertain long-term investments, we don't need their job.
How old can get a chance to survive?
Depends on how bad the Fresher is needed in the required area. Could be lucky to get skipped this RIF round.