"Could you have ever guessed that IBM would one day be such a mess?"
A lot of people have guessed over the years that IBM would be such a mess. Numerous insiders came to that conclusion, along with lots of outsiders. (Look up any Cringely article for an example.) In many ways, IBM is EXACTLY the same company it has been for close to 40 years...bureaucratic, hard to deal with both as an employee and as a customer, with sometimes-great (and sometimes-awful) technology that is unavailable without a lot of money, a lot of historical knowledge, and a lot of personal contacts with the right people.
So what changed? THE WORLD. At one time, IBM with all its problems was the only choice. Now it is just one of many choices on the menu. 40 years ago, IBM pushed the mainframe as the only real choice if you wanted serious computing power. Nowadays, much of the world runs their businesses and their lives using "somebody else's stuff". IBM's challenge is to remain relevant in that world. It is a daunting challenge indeed, and it is not a sure thing that IBM will do it (under AK or any of his successors).