- Earnings continue to deteriorate thru the year
- The sham of “5N4Y is ahead of schedule” is exposed as i4/MTL and then 20A are delayed.
- No foundry customer signs up for 18A this year
- Stock price drops to $20 and market cap gets to $85B
- Board is forced to make dramatic org change along the lines of a split, indicating that the IDM2.0 strategy failed.
- Board pushes out Pat.
- Two new CEOs are named for each half of the company.
7 replies (most recent on top)
It is possible that Pat is retained a ceo of the design company. And someone new becomes ceo of foundry.
Only question is when
- Earnings will slowly improve as the market works through the oversupply Intel sent out, but not naturally. They will likely make extra short term deals to the detriment of the long term to make it look good on paper. This will be praised as recovery.
- 5N4Y is vaguely defined so they will move the goalposts for success and pat themselves on the back for whatever they do achieve (see previous delays by Intel)
- There will be 'trials' or non locked in customers. Any sane customer would make look at >1 supplier rather than bet on an unreliable upstart. Intel will offer too-low prices in order to win. They'll have to charge more later and potentially lose those customers
- Could be. I've No insight here
- There will be reorgs for sure, but no formal split to avoid rocking the boat. That will come in a later reorg. Intel never reorgs right first time.
- Pat probably has some deal with the board to keep him on for his 5 year plan. Unless it completely bo--s, I don't see them trying to swap in someone possibly less competent (they had so much difficulty getting anyone to sign up in the first place)
- See 5
1-4 ... yes
5+ ... frankly, that is the job of the CEO. If Pat truly wants to save Intel, then he would aggressively pursue dramatic changes, split, impactful job reductions, etc. He is in an unique position to do so. The solution is not government welfare and half-a-s job cuts that only crush moral. If Pat does not act decisively, then it is clear he is just milking the comp package. The next Board meeting should literally be a "come to Jesus" session with Pat - address the issues or you are gone.
And yet Intel 4, already printing chips baby! The bitter former employees posting here need to learn Google. Maybe ChatGPT can make up for deficiencies. Oh wait that's what you are already using. It's using data from 2021 geniuses.
By the middle of 2024 it will be all clear that the battle and war is lost.
Foolish and optimistic peoplewill hold blind faith thru 2023 and discover there is no deliverance with 5in4 and IDM and IFS.
Sounds about right. Don’t see another way. I see this happening by end of 2023