Wall Street is down today because of this speculation about AI's economic effects. It's well worth reading:
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
56 replies (most recent on top)
I know people at SAS working 35-hour weeks. I don't blame them for taking a good deal.
No one has yet answered the question: "What advantage is there going forward to purchase Viya?"
@1an Do you have more specifics? I'm not trying to be snarky. I'm genuinely curious. I understand why someone might not get rid of Viya, but what is the major selling point for spending large amounts of money on licensing revenue for something that AI tools can handle internally without an outside vendor? (or will be able to in the next few years)
not going to compete in this race while working 35 hours per week
Seriously? That whole 35 hour workweek assertion hasn’t been true for many, many years. That’s only a historic reference now. Adding it just weakens your argument.
“ That's correct; don't know why it got downvoted.”
Not even remotely close to correct.
"Isn't Viya just a really overpriced version of Claude etc? Who cares if Viya moves further toward the AI realm? In the end, both involve workflows and analytics of various data sources."
That's correct; don't know why it got downvoted. Claude connects to data in the Cloud and analyzes it. Other AI companies do too.
"I'm genuinely curious, what advantage is there going forward to purchase Viya?"
That's a darned good question that no one has answered.
@qa I'm no visionary, but I'd advise SAS to play to its traditional strengths. Other companies integrate AI with data analysis, and SAS should be able to do it better -- or at least acquire startups that do it better.
The Hazy acquisition is a good start. In addition to synthetic data, SAS could offer an AI-based suite of products for data cleansing, data profiling, and basic data analysis, with recommendations for more sophisticated techniques.
The problem is, startups and well-funded companies like Anthropic doing this already. SAS is not going to compete in this race while working 35 hours per week.
To produce competitive offerings, I'd move the best SAS people to a subsidiary, tell them to work 60 hours per week, and incentivize them with high salaries and shares in the company.
If you see that happening, let me know. I might come out of retirement 😆.
Argumentum ad Crumenam?
Ironically, the AI disruption likely applies to AI companies. while frontier LLM companies and hyperscalers are paying researchers $250 million and need a return on their huge investments, new entrants are coming along, building on (stealing?) the current work, undercutting the pricing models, etc... in first mover vs. fast follower, first mover doesn't always win.
SAS is at a very interesting existential inflection point.
How would a true current expert visionary with a deep understanding of Tech history advise SAS on best options for its future?
Would JHG listen, or does he already consider himself that expert?
“ Isn't Viya just a really overpriced version of Claude etc?”
What?
I'm still trying to understand what the SAS play will be here.
Isn't Viya just a really overpriced version of Claude etc? Who cares if Viya moves further toward the AI realm? In the end, both involve workflows and analytics of various data sources.
I'm genuinely curious, what advantage is there going forward to purchase Viya?
Race to the bottom! Race to the bottom! Everybody in! The water is fine.
It depends. Will vendors use AI as “intelligence” to add more value? If so they should better solve problems, create more demand, and improve pricing power. Or just try to cut costs in the manufacturing of commodities and race to the bottom? Or both? AI helps open source dominate and then vendors extend? That’s part of the winners versus losers dynamic that will take some time to sort. If vendors do neither? Or cannot avoid disruption? … not good. Hope SAS uses the capabilities well. Good luck all.
@fn Agreed, probably few customers will use AI to build their own applications.
But the authors argue that even if they don't, this ability gives customers leverage in contract negotiations. If customers can use AI to build their own applications -- or even if they only think they can -- they can negotiate lower renewal fees.
Some unknown number of customers will do this. The number may be small, but I think it's not zero.
it seems logical on the face of it, but the same advantages of writing software faster using AI at a customer site are true at vendors, only vendors are also specialized in that activity and learning from solving similar problems for many customers.
making the "input" cheaper doesn't automatically = everyone should DIY instead of use vendors. the vendors don't just have an advantage in "manufacturing" code.
"AI Scare Trade" and risk-off means sell first, figure it out later. the above is just a surface level look at things traders will file in the figure it out later category because there will be winners and there will be losers, but they don't know how to sort just yet.
to me that means, saas in general shouldn't be sold off as much. however #1 and #2 are more specific to SAS and are definite negatives already, not theoretical at all.
Even venerable IBM is shuddering. Far bigger than SAS-to-R conversion is that Anthropic claims to be able to rewrite COBOL
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/ibm-stock-dives-after-anthropic-points-out-ai-can-rewrite-cobol-fast/ar-AA1WVMWz
The authors make clear that they don't expect all their dire predictions to come true. However, their scenario includes many plausible events that could affect SAS:
1) Because AI generates code without paying license fees, customers may require fewer licenses.
2) Because AI eliminates the language barrier, customers who want to translate SAS to R or Python now have a cheap path.
3) Because AI enables customers to build their own solutions, they can use that as leverage in contract negotiations to reduce renewal fees.
4) Because of the previous three effects, software ARR is less predictable, so AI reduces the value of software companies.
5) Because AI disrupts software and other industries, it may tip us into recession.
Like everyone, I'm trying to understand the effects of AI, to plan my own future. I'd be interested in the thoughts of others.
-- @OP