As the fat lady prepares to come on stage, will the creditors accept a deal that keeps the company basically the same or will they push for a sell off?
9 replies (most recent on top)
ANSWER: NO
It does 🚫 appear all creditors are A OK with Apollo and AVYA calculated plan. They lose either way, so they'd rather Apollo not get any benefit and they are withholding coming to an agreement.
It's looking like AVYA will be managed by a Judge and will be stripped to bear bear minimum.
@1lcv+1kQz2iCt
DUDE do you hear yourself?
***GSS & APS only have value alongside the rest of Avaya. If Avaya sells off all else, there is no point to GSS & APS.
Yet yes, a channel partner could buy it, BUT WHY when they already do it themselves? Why pay for it?***
"Erm, hate to point out the obvious but Avaya already has this business - it’s what GSS does everyday and what APS does so how is that “ Game Over”?
“You split services...
Then you immediately become a competitor to all channel partners. Then it's game over”
Erm, hate to point out the obvious but Avaya already has this business - it’s what GSS does everyday and what APS does so how is that “ Game Over”? Heck partners may even want to buy it.
The only merger that I've heard that makes sense is a company buying Avaya for the compute, not the IP, to feed their hyperscaler business. Say what you will but the Aura stack has been incredibly difficult for LARGE organizations to move off of, or move off-premise (cloud is still mostly an SMB business). If someone like a MS bought Avaya and went to shared customers and said "you've moved the majority of your compute to Azure, now let's move the Microsoft Aura stack to Azure" an acquisition would pay for itself in a heartbeat.
Buying just the Aura business in a stalking horse bankruptcy auction would keep costs down even further while also eliminating the need to sell off/bin the other stuff (IP Office, legacy Nortel, etc).
Has the market learned enough from Avaya's overpayment for Nortel's biz that spending on an installed base with one foot out the door isn't cost-effective? Probably not.
Oooo, maybe Elon Musk will buy.
You split services...
Then you immediately become a competitor to all channel partners. Then it's game over
I don’t have optimism of Avaya having much value. Current Avaya customers are leaving in droves, competitors are attacking the base, the platform is so proprietary and difficult to service no one wants it. Bids will be low.
Agree, split provides most value - possibly 700m for Services as a stand alone, 3-500m for CC and 5-600m for NonCC legacy , licensing, IP etc.Based on a guess of revenue share and future potential.
Probably would recover 60 to 70c on a $1, maybe even more.
It makes sense to split the company up - A Service and Maintenance company holding the lucrative maintenance and outsourcing services. This could be a stand alone business with significant revenue at high margin. A Contact Centre Business focused on only this part of the business, while margins aren’t the best this area has the most growth potential. Finally a legacy business that holds all the non-cc and other licensing, this would have reasonable revenue at high margin but in a dwindling market, ideal for a spin off into larger company that could merge and gain synergies on resourcing and IP value extraction.