Thread regarding ConocoPhillips layoffs

Prediction - Montney Gas Plants

I predict the sale of the Montney Gas Plants to a mid-stream operator.


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Post ID: @OP+1k8pkj7dh

8 replies (most recent on top)

Rumour has it, Ryan Lance tried selling Montney all together during his last visit to Canada, but the deal fell apart.

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Post ID: @15b+1k8pkj7dh

I heard they're turning into water plants....

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Post ID: @em+1k8pkj7dh

@a4 Apparently ChatGPT.

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Post ID: @eg+1k8pkj7dh

@a7 this sounds smart so COP won’t do it and instead they will do the opposite

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Post ID: @c4+1k8pkj7dh

Check return of COP vs PSX Since spin-off and try to make your case.

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Post ID: @ar+1k8pkj7dh

Does CP hate The United Steelworkers union (USW) that much?

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Post ID: @aq+1k8pkj7dh

The core rationale for ConocoPhillips to sell the Montney midstream gas plant (225 mmscf/d capacity) and retain the wells/acreage focuses on maximizing shareholder value by concentrating capital on their core competency: upstream exploration and production.

  1. Capital Recapture and Reinvestment
    Recouping Capital: The stated initial investment is significant: $400 million CAD in 2019 and $500 million CAD in 2023, for a total of $900 million CAD. Selling the plant allows ConocoPhillips to immediately recoup this large capital investment.

Focus on Core Business: E&P companies generally generate higher returns from drilling and production than from operating regulated, fee-based infrastructure. The sale would free up capital to be reinvested into high-return upstream projects—namely, drilling more liquids-rich Montney wells, or in other core regions (e.g., Permian, Alaska).

Debt Reduction/Shareholder Return: The cash proceeds can be used for debt reduction or returned directly to shareholders via share buybacks or increased dividends, aligning with a corporate strategy of financial discipline and value creation.

  1. Risk Mitigation and Strategic Focus
    Offloading Operational Risk: Midstream assets like gas plants require specialized maintenance, operational expertise, and are subject to regulatory and environmental compliance unique to infrastructure. Selling transfers this operational and regulatory burden to a dedicated midstream operator.

Price and Contract Volatility Shield: While the plant likely has a fee-for-service component (mitigating direct commodity risk), a sale fully removes the company from the capital risk associated with operating and expanding midstream assets.

Optimized Service: A third-party midstream company specializes in optimizing throughput and securing new contracts, potentially offering ConocoPhillips better and more reliable service via a long-term processing agreement (take-or-pay contract). This ensures production continues to be processed while eliminating the headache of plant management.

  1. Financial and Valuation Arbitrage
    Higher Multiple Valuation: Midstream companies (often Master Limited Partnerships or their Canadian equivalents) are valued differently than E&P companies. They are typically valued on a predictable fee-based cash flow multiple (EV/EBITDA), which can be higher and more stable than the commodity-price-sensitive multiples applied to an E&P company like ConocoPhillips.

Unlocking Trapped Value: By transferring the asset to a company that can value it at a higher multiple, ConocoPhillips effectively "unlocks" trapped value that the public market wasn't fully recognizing within the larger E&P business structure.

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Post ID: @a7+1k8pkj7dh

What do you base this on?

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Post ID: @a4+1k8pkj7dh

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