"What is a realistic happy ending for SAS?" -- @1sa+1jzq0haak
31 replies (most recent on top)
@hkg “Rapid progress is being made.”
In which direction?
“ How’s that working out?”
Rapid progress is being made.
EXACTLY …virtually all established Enterprise software companies grew and evolved through copious internal tribal knowledge, long aging proprietary implementations and complex customer relationships at various levels. Navigating this phenomenon, while attempting to evolve technology and products to remain relevant (not to mention grow revenue) is no easy feat. Viya was SAS’ grand attempt. How’s that working out?
“ A technology company needing to modernize itself should be a contradiction in terms”
In your mind maybe. But it is a reality in many technology companies.
Continuous change to the level of always being in on the latest of EVERYTHING needed to maintain a large company is expensive and complicated. If you don’t do that then there will always be things that need modernized.
Just because we are talking technology company doesn’t somehow make that a trivial or obvious path.
What you said is a perfect example of how easy things are to “say” from the cheap seats…
Build a 3 billion dollar company and get back to me in 30 years. Or a 300 million dollar company and 5 years…
There isn't one. SAS missed the boat and waited too long to realize it actually had competitors. A technology company needing to modernize itself should be a contradiction in terms but it isn't here. People say it with a straight face.
TD lays it out succinctly in this post:
https://thomaswdinsmore.substack.com/p/whats-next-for-sas
Y'all are all living through the happy ending times. Tick-tock.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn2
@198+1k0pgytjq you are prime example what the person who always says people on here spout bs is talking about.
https://www.thelayoff.com/rules.php#google_vignette
Both owners have little to no life except SAS . The want to retain control. So if an IPO happens 51 percent stay with KQ amd JS rides his coattails.
Not exactly a happy ending but actions seem to suggest that is a likely ending.
How would you know that it is SAS asking vs. website policies?
No one said SAS was deleting the comments, dopey. The company has asked that comments naming current employees be deleted in the past and this site has complied. Now the company is requesting comments be deleted that don't name names. Big brother is watching. That's the point.
“Comments are being selectively deleted. We see you SAS. Interesting choice of comments to have deleted.”
SAS isn’t deleting your comments. Use you brain.
Comments are being selectively deleted. We see you SAS. Interesting choice of comments to have deleted.
I left SAS when my project changed direction for the worse, and the manager blamed me. I had been careful to always do what he asked, and I averaged 50 hours per week. But he had to blame either me or his own decisions.
I worked in SAS R&D for 20+ years. I had a mix of good and bad managers. I always trusted the managers, as long as I could. Eventually I realized that for many of them, producing good software was not the goal.
Often, their only goal was to get along with the other managers — some of whom were incompetent. This was a guarantee of compromised, mediocre products.
I was fortunate to leave during the pandemic stimulus. Hundreds of us left then, when it was easy to go out and get a raise. At the time, I thought, SAS has dropped the ball: they aren’t paying market rates.
But this was after the first buyout. Years later, I realized that, by that time, attrition was part of the plan. SAS wanted us to leave.
I didn’t leave because of Viya. Now, I would, because it’s clear that Viya has not improved revenues. Adjusted for inflation, they are declining. Therefore headcount must continue to decline.
There is no happy ending here. This is a shrinking company. Many of us worked hard and did our best to make SAS grow. I am so sorry we did not succeed.
In this situation, any other CEO would do mass layoffs. But JG is clearly not trying to maximize his profits. Instead, he is giving his employees time to make their own best decisions.
Good luck to all.
@jt
Yes, that land is valuable. Have you looked into "The Giving Pledge"?
https://www.givingpledge.org/
Check out the website and look at the list for North America. You'll see a familiar name on it. The idea doesn't seem so far-fetched anymore.
Tearing down the old side of campus is a given. You are correct— who would want to live there. Was think about the best candidates: A, C & Q being converted to luxo condos. Still a massive, expensive project that would require gutting much of the building’s interior and adding plumbing, rerouting HVAC, etc.
No way does that land go to NCSU. It's way too valuable for that, especially considering how close it is to the airport.
Surprised that the front half of the Cary campus hasn't been sold off for development. JG's son is a property developer and the appetite for condos and homes in Cary is stronger than ever these days.
@h1 "It all goes back to NC State"
Another good thought. I'm not sure what the price tag would be and if NC State has the funds for the purchase or the additional overhead. Good thought tho.
In the book "Don't You Know Who I Am?", Dr. Ramani Duravasala shares a story about a family she encountered in her research. A family shared a story about a particular ethnic dish their Grandma cooked that everyone loved.
As Grandma aged, the family begged her to share the secret of her prized recipe, else it would be lost forever. "Grandma, time is running out! Will you please share your recipe?", the family asked.
"I'll reveal the recipe as part of my estate", Grandma replied.
Grandma passed, and the family found the recipe she left -- a generic recipe, readily available in many cookbooks. Try as they might, the family could not reproduce the flavor that Grandma produced. Grandma took her secret to the grave.
The family had been bamboozled. By not sharing her secret recipe, Grandma could live forever in her family's memory as the only one who could produce the special flavor of this tasty dish. Each holiday, the family would attempt to replicate the dish, only to fail and lament about Grandma's efforts.
Sound familiar? Great place to work and all that other sh-t? Are you getting much information about what's happening now or in the future? Feeling like Grandma's family yet?
It all goes back to NC State. It becomes NC State NW campus. In my opinion, it was modeled after NC State anyhow.
ewww, who would want to convert existing buildings from like 1988? they'd have to knock them down and build new ones, duh.
As previously reported on other threads, it’s very expensive to convert commercial buildings intended for office space into residential. The HVAC and plumbing zones seem very different for these two applications of space.
@gd "Perhaps a gated community of super high end condos?"
Wow, there's a scenario I hadn't thought of. I suppose it is possible that some part of the campus could be repurposed as residential. A mini Preston maybe? Yeah, that's a good guess.
The heirs make lemonade out of lemons. They freeze all software development and put a skeleton crew (all remote) on keeping the money makers making money. The non money makers get a free subscription and are advertised as "use at your own risk', a goodwill gesture. This is basically a strategy of milking the declining revenue stream completely dry. That generates cash for the following.
That lcash will be used for the land and buildings. The buildings get repurposed in some way that fits the imagination of the heirs. Perhaps a gated community of super high end condos? The oldy moldy buildings get torn down. Good accounts know how to make that into a juicy tax break. Maybe make that vacated space green space. Wealthy greenies are willing to fork out big yearly HOA fees for that.
James Jr. is into real estate development...hmmmm.......
@ex I’m sure you’re correct. If the owners pass unexpectedly, a trust is sensible estate planning. It prevents heirs being forced to sell the company in a down market.
But hopefully the owners live long and healthy lives. In that case IMO it would be preferable to sell the company, because the best time to sell a declining asset is ASAP.
A couple decades ago I heard that a trust was already set up. I don’t know why people think that isn’t already in place.
@ee Agreed. The SAS "Work Utopia" is still more than a myth, because the current CEO will do all he can to avoid mass layoffs. Microsoft, Google, everybody else is doing them. Any new owner will do them, so will not need all the buildings.
Buyer and seller can structure a deal however they like. In theory, the owners could sell SAS, the software company, on a thumb drive. The buyer could purchase some of the buildings, if they want a presence in Cary. If they want to retain only some of the staff for a transition period, renting the buildings makes more sense.
Note the vacant buildings E, F, H, and J are part of one contiguous parcel that includes the lots on Richard Drive. This is ~100 acres located near an interstate and a major airport, with road frontage on Harrison Avenue. There aren’t many such tracts remaining; it may be sold before SAS is.
@c8 If a sale were to happen, I suppose SAS would consolidate into a couple three of the newer buildings on campus? And the rest of the real estate and buildings would be sold piece by piece to individual buyers? I don't see how a new owner of SAS would or could consume the whole campus. I'd love to hear thoughts on this.
The idea that the owners will never sell or IPO contradicts any reasonable effort at estate planning.
A software company is a terrible asset to inherit. This one particularly so, because none of the heirs have shown interest in running it, and none of them can afford to buy the others out.
If inherited, it would most likely have to be sold quickly, perhaps into a bad market.
The owners could put it in trust, but why do that? It’s a declining asset. The best course for the heirs is to sell it ASAP.
The owners know this. There is no evidence they won’t do what’s best for their families.
According to those tables, for someone at JG's age, there is about a 7% probability of death within one year.
There won't be any IPO while he's alive.
My prediction is that SAS dies with JG. Once he's gone, the company goes.
JG built the myth of a "Work Utopia". This myth will persist, as much as possible, as long as he is alive. Upon his passing, the cruel reality of the business world will rush in and swallow up all who remain.
Any "Happy Ending" for SAS will be for those who saved diligently throughout their career and whose retirement date coincides with JG's passing.
If you're lucky and not caught up in any layoffs, you may have 5-career-years at SAS remaining.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
SAS of course has no legal obligation to create a happy ending. They have only a moral obligation to do the best they can do.
I believe the best they could do was Viya. They deserve credit for making such a large and expensive bet on new technology.
Immediately after the Big German left, SAS began talks with Broadcom. So, I believe they have decided to sell the company.
SAS's largest, most marketable asset is the $3B V9 revenue stream. Companies like Broadcom, and private equity, are in the business of buying declining enterprise software revenue streams. To maximize their profits, such companies do mass layoffs, then milk the revenue stream as long as they can. That is their business model.
Before that happens, I expect SAS will IPO, because since the SAS-Broadcom talks, there has been ample time for a private sale, but none has occurred. Also, an IPO often brings a better price than a private sale.
With an IPO, it will be several years before a new owner obtains control. Adjusted for inflation, the V9 revenue stream is declining, so there will be continued small layoffs, but no mass layoffs under current ownership.
So most SAS employees have time to consider their future and make their plans.
This may be the happiest ending SAS can provide.