Massive layoffs every six months. Massive H1B hiring. Do the math.
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in ten years I expect most tech companies to have headcounts that are 50% of today's levels
Even without AI if we could get rid of the right 50% of software developers around the world everything would be much better. As it is companies keep gathering the proverbial groups of nine women to make babies in a month and after three years they keep ending up with one legged mice.
Repeat, it’s a back up plan and is never the preferred method to bring in talent.
There was an article with video on Network World where Cisco was taking calls from people with extreme sounding names and when they found out they didn't need a visa Cisco hung up on them. Maybe Cisco has changed, maybe they haven't.
The fact remains Americans rarely put forth the effort to enhance their skills or strive for a level of achievement.
I remember going to an engineering event for high school kids in the late 1970s and I was chatting with a another kid about things of substance and I remember him remarking most people there just wanted to see blinky lights. I've worked with people from many countries, some moving to the US and others staying in their country, and the vast majority everywhere still just wanted to see blinky lights.
The flip side to this is those that want to do great work rarely get to work at (typically small) companies which can both use everything they bring in the door and grow them as fast as they're capable, not just on the technical side but the business side as well. It's an incredibly brutal yet fulfilling experience. If you're good you'll outgrow that company and have to move on, and it's worth doing a short stop at a big company for title, money and some insight as to what goes wrong in the large so you can take those to the next aggressive small company. I only found out by stumbling into it, and most I've talked to throughout my career never encountered such a company. The world does not no how to use the majority of real talent available to it.
I mean...yeah? who works anywhere for thirty+ years from starting date to retirement?
I worry less about H1B and more about just being automated away...H1B at least is still a human who themselves can be replaced with a human...once your job is automated/platformed out, it is lost to humans forever
in ten years I expect most tech companies to have headcounts that are 50% of today's levels
people always ask...why is so-and-so laying off people when they make such huge profits?
BECAUSE THEY CAN
May be able to add perspective to this issue since I deal with it every day. H1B is an expensive, time-consuming, cr-p shoot that is the last resort to fill key roles. Repeat, it’s a back up plan and is never the preferred method to bring in talent. The fact remains Americans rarely put forth the effort to enhance their skills or strive for a level of achievement. Sure, they want it, but they won’t work for it. This is usually when these same folks fall back on how they’re mistreated or misunderstood, that they are ready to do whatever it takes to be top level performers. Bullsh-t. I hear it over and over but those who require and H1B prove they can do the work well before they’re asked to do it.
Call it 85,000 employees and a quick search says Cisco has 1,330 H-1Bs, making H-1Bs less than 1.6% of Cisco's employees. What does the word "massive" mean in your world?
contractors/consultants come & go. dirt cheap labor
Do the math.
H1Bs come and go.
Not too bright are you? One does not simply hire H1B after layoffs. One must prove there's no local candidates for the job.