On the fence. Intended to take it until the market tanked. My investments are in order, so I’m “ok” if I do, but not as confident as I was a month ago.
75 replies (most recent on top)
Don't worry, be happy! NOT!!!
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/nm0p9nZwzAs
Markets are happy with the 90-day tariff pause... Stocks go up on the news!!!
So, despite the 90-day pause for the higher tariffs for everyone except China which will get 125%, the 10% baseline tariff is still imposed for everyone during this 90-day period.
Now it is a battle between US-China with 125%-84% while the world awaits.
Sit back, get popcorn and watch the show.
Whiplash!
The sweeping reciprocal tariffs are paused again today, except on China where it is increased to 125%.
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/09/trump-tariffs-pause-china-stocks-recession
"For many" that is...
Do not ignore the risk of NOT taking the package.
Right now you are the youngest (and possibly the healthiest) that you will ever be. For man (not all), beginning at at 70, parts of the human body begin to wear out. The span between 60-70 is a wonderful time for you to do the things that you most enjoy while you are still "young", or you can spend more of those years working for someone else.
Check out this tool - I like it because it helps you assess whether you will run out of money while also incorporating whether you will run out of life before you run out of money.
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/
"Usually family members provide some care, or in-home visitation provides some care. "
That would be ideal but not everyone has family members that would be willing to provide care for the elderly at home. If someone has dementia it will be very difficult to provide care at home. Someone has to watch them around the clock so they won't wander off and get lost or accidentally set the house on fire. Everybody's situation is different so you must plan accordingly and appropriately.
A good speech from Singapore PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io1G_5I7a-0
no longer there and not quite old enough yet. would love to take it otherwise. have a few years cash and went 60/40 before the trade war, but note to self that 50/50 might be better for a period. at this rate, we are headed there inadvertently and not due to savvy planning. good luck all
OP, you need to go see a financial advisor asap if you haven't already done so before deciding to take VRBP. No one here can give you specific advise for your situation because no one knows your situation in all details.
That said, if you're scared and uncertain, don't take risks.
If you're optimistic despite the chaos and can ignore them then take risks.
You need to be able to sleep at night once you make the decision with no regrets.
Many argue in favor of a 60% stocks 40% bonds portfolio, so I do not agree that someone cannot at age 60 have a majority in stocks.
Look at retirement in two phases: from retirement until you start collecting social security, and retirement while collecting social security.
During the first phase, a 40/60 split that protects against a down market will support you. During the second phase when you are receiving social security, a 60/40 split might be better because you will be drawing less each year from the portfolio because SS will be covering some of the costs. I.e., as you get older, you can often afford to be a bit more aggressive in your investments. But why do so? Depends on whether you want to grow assets to give to heirs, or preserve income for yourself.
And about nursing home - while many people will need SOME FORM of assisted care, a surprisingly few of those people need to go into an actual nursing home. Usually family members provide some care, or in-home visitation provides some car. Both are cheaper than a nursing home. And of those who go to a nursing home, MOST are not there for very long.
One of the best ways that you can protect against healthcare costs in retirement is to start right now investing in your health. If you are overweight or on any medication, change your lifestyle so that your body can work on healing itself.
If you have an investment portfolio that is set to lose 50% of its value "if the market gets worse", then you have a portfolio that is not appropriate for retirement. A well-balanced portfolio will not lose 50% of its value. The post is possibly fear mongering.
Health care costs in the few years before medicare are simply a line item in your budget. You can find something on healthcare.org that suits your needs and budget.
Making any sort of retirement decision based upon the state of trade relations with covidcountry is just plain stupid.
This video (especially the network and specific broadcaster) is a perfect example of anti-DJT fear mongering. This 'professor' lost nothing unless he was foolish enough to sell in a down market, in which case you can completely ignore any advice from him.
If you're 60 you can't be too bullish in stocks but you can't be too conservative with your investments either since you can live until your 90s because inflation and recession will eat up your money if you're too conservative and you need a lot of money for private nursing homes by then. You need a well-balance portfolio with enough cash in reserves to ride out the storm whether it is 4 or 8 years, or 10+ years.
When you're 75+ then be very conservative since you don't have a long time for a long market recovery.
OP, you have until April 15 to make a decision, right?
Come back and tell us your final decision. Good luck.
Too risky now to retire at 60 in this economy if you're not fully confident.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HO7mt7d9Zp8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Gy1YKiKULA
But if you're fed up with SAS, really want to leave, financially able to do it, and fully and confidently believe US economy and markets will improve despite all the tariffs then go for VRBP.
OP is only 60? You're not qualified for Medicare until 65 and the SAS VRBP health insurance subsidy of $500 a month is only for 3 years so you will still need to pay 2 more years entirely on your own. Even $500/month is not enough subsidy so you still need to pay the rest. Healthcare, dental care, vision care will come out of your pocket.
Is your spouse still working so you can get healthcare coverage under your spouse's employment? Do you still enjoy your job? Are you still in good health? Are you wealthy enough to withstand the possible risk of losing 50% of your portfolio if things get worse? Are you confident enough? Only you can answer these questions.
OP is 60.
If you're of age to take the package and considering not taking it because of the market volatility, that tells me you are not invested appropriately for your risk level.
In your 60s, the majority of your retirement funds should not be in the stock market. I get that you want the growth, but this is why growth is a risk you cannot afford at your age.
This is very very basic retirement investing 101. You rolled the dice if the majority of your money is still invested in stocks, and you've lost at the moment.
Even the very best professional investors cannot time the market, so regular people should not attempt to do it either.
It will bounce back, it's a cycle, so it always will.
But when you get into your 60s, you have much less time to ride out market volatility as you are learning. The potential gains are not worth the risk of a drop like we're seeing now.
I strongly suggest you get yourself a financial advisor. If you had one, the majority of your retirement money would not be tied up in stocks right now.
Besides 84% tariff retaliation against US 104%, China has just frozen all investments into the US. China produces and refines 90% of critical rare earth minerals in the world. China has placed export controls on heavy rare earths including samarium and gadolinium, which are crucial for industries such as defence and technology. The US currently operates only one rare earths mine, and much of its rare earths supply comes from imports (most of it from China). This does not bode well for US. US can only push China so far and will have to back down at some point if China stops exporting rare earths to US.
What matters most is your good health, which is not permanent for any of us.
If you can work until Medicare, that’s a solid financial win.
How secure is your position? because SAS will continue laying off.
Your investments must be resilient if the S&P 500 drops 50%, as it did in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009.
US imposes 104% tariff on China and China just responds back with 84% (breaking news).
This could go back and forth until someone stops the escalation first and sit down to have a serious talk with each other to come to a compromise. When will this happen? Who knows... I'd keep working in this environment.
In times of uncertainties I would not take a VRBP unless you're so well off it does not matter financially otherwise just keep working, and if they layoff you off later at some point then you get the same severance anyway.
I don't know how this trade war will end or if it will ever end...but if iPhones were made entirely in the US, each phone could cost up to $30,000 to make per this video so I don't think this kind of manufacturing could ever come back to the US. I think even if iPhone doesn't cost $30,000, it can cost at least $3000-$4000 to consumers if fully made in USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unMyc9faABs
Watch this for some financial advice @6:10 regarding retiring in this current market and what people should do with their portfolio.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qg3JOR44r6M
@ar+1jrbf9w06 "...ready to retire aren’t worried about ‘day-to-day’ market fluctuations"
True statement. "ready to retire" includes a few years of expenses saved in cash (CDs, money market, savings) combined with a stress-tested portfolio so that daily fluctuations are irrelevant.
OP if "my investments are in order" means that you have a well-diversified and appropriately balanced investment portfolio, then the fact that the stock market is down (technically only a portion of the stock market is down) compared to the beginning of the year (in fact it is up compared to a year ago) does not amount to squat.
Use software (examples: Right Capital, Empower) to stress test your portfolio. I suspect that you will find that you will be fine if your investments are in order.
In fact, if you take the package, you do not need to touch your portfolio for the next six months, maybe longer. At that time, re-evaluate whether you can resume spending as-planned, or if it makes you feel better, then postpone your big vacation a number of months, and take a small one instead, and so on.
Keep in mind (really) that most of the media outlets are run by DJT-hating liberals who are intent on spewing doomsday rhetoric. Do not let them get into your head and impact your decision in any way.
Recommended reading to get a perspective: "Relax and Retire" by Josh Scandlen https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0C2S6B5HZ/?bestFormat=true&k=relax%20and%20retire&ref_=nb_sb_ss_w_scx-ent-pd-bk-d_de_k0_1_16&crid=318Y156H06QL0&sprefix=relax%20and%20retire
How old are you , OP? Are you 65 yet to qualify for Medicare?
Inflation, recession, market tanking will eat up your retirement savings and investments if you're not investing wisely and smartly and have more than enough to ride out the storm for 2-4 years. Too much uncertainties now and next 2-4 years. Don't take the VRBP if you're not 100% ready.
"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Americans ready to retire aren’t worried about ‘day-to-day’ market fluctuations."
Someone needs a reality check.
If you can financially retire now then do it. If not sure about how bad the market will tank further, then don't take the package and just ride it out for another year or two. If you take VRBP your last paycheck is Oct 31.
Not sure why all the downvotes. It is a legitimate question.
Having more interests than time makes the transition to retirement easy.
I, too, retired as soon as I qualified for Medicare. Could not be happier. I volunteer several days a week at favorite charities, exercise, and READ voraciously.
@a5+1jrbf9w06 What do you do all day?
FWIW ..
Retired SASer with no package. Only regret was not doing it earlier. Suggest retiring NOW if you can afford it. Enjoy your health while you have it.