How long can we survive...
10 replies (most recent on top)
Avaya always survives somehow….i think Avaya will be OK for 2025.
We were a Nortel Shop and went all in with Avaya in 2008. This weekend we power down all of our Aura stuff and other Avaya services for the last time. We migrated to Teams Calling 365 Anywhere Contact Center. We tried to do more business with them but after no callbacks or direction from them, we decided to move on last quarter. Avaya’s leadership does not understand their customers and could give a rats rear end about them. If you are a Avaya customer make your exit plans and if you are considering them…. don't.
I hear what you are saying but believe it's not possible. It it were fears ago with more money available to borrow for cheap, of course. But it is game over. Companies like Avaya have run out of options. All companies actually must become self sustainable. It's not possible for Avaya. None of the old tricks work now
see at least 7 to 10 years of Avaya inertia. It may or may not be with a company named Avaya but there are still new IPO and CM systems getting sold. Some of these are in the public space. There will be money available for someone to take care of these systems and they will pay staff to update software for CISA vulnerabilities etc. Partners will deal with the disruption and hope that one very large partner doesn't purchase Avaya and exclude them from their customers<
I see at least 7 to 10 years of Avaya inertia. It may or may not be with a company named Avaya but there are still new IPO and CM systems getting sold. Some of these are in the public space. There will be money available for someone to take care of these systems and they will pay staff to update software for CISA vulnerabilities etc. Partners will deal with the disruption and hope that one very large partner doesn't purchase Avaya and exclude them from their customers.
Could also stop giving clients money back when the products aren't up to scratch.
#1 -- DRAMATIC Revenue Downsloping Actually, it is falling off the cliff. ZERO Meaningful Net-new revenue (IP Office sales have terrible margin and 1000 deals can't make up for one large Enterprise client leaving. The ONLY new contracts have been IP office for 4 years now).
#2 -- Debt payments are due ...and now looming. It's 2025. There is little to no opportunity to make up the difference between revenue lost and debt payments due in 2028.
#3 -- ZERO cushion in market. Zoom just had a huge layoff. Years ago that may be a sign they are showing up cash to make a purchase. Not impossible, but much less likely. Money is very expensive. Not freely available. There are no more backup plans available for any company. Companies need to produce. They can no longer rely on the low interest lending game. Just look at Mitel and their looking death spiral.
RECIPE FOR DISASTER
ML was mastermind behind the plan. Her plan was arrogant and ignorant. Arrogantly wrote it based on NO revenue leaving. Ignorantly believed she could hire her unqualified buddies and they could change anything. What an absolute pathetic joke and a waste of all resources. When established talent left, clients has zero reason to stay. And clients certainly don't give a flying F about making MLs friends feel good about firing their long time contacts.
ONLY WAY OUT is a creative merger with another upside down card noany and hope 2 Wrongs = 1 👍 ▶️
Ok Is there a debt payment due soon or is cash burn that disproportionate from revenue?
There is no WE!!!!
We should be taking wagers on this question !
If nothing big occurs (paperwork merger with the A, just to buy 3 or so more years or an unlikely buyout) I'm going to predict Nov/Dec 2025. End of operations before end of CY.
Well, that depends. Will Apollo need a cash losing pile of debt to balance their books? Then maybe they will just allow Avaya to keep going on fumes.
Does Apollo need to dump Avaya? Then Avaya may cease operations in 9 mos if they can't find a buyer.
September 2025 is pivotal.