Are chances of RA better/worse if I disclose a disability?
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It all depends on where IBM stands with its disability quota. Of course they will deny of one such quota placed on them by federal government.
Yes, never disclose a disability when employed or looking for a new job. It's the kiss of death regardless of what laws say. Unless a family member has a disability others look at you as a problem, not a asset. Period end of story.
If you can do the job, that should be all that matters, but it doesn't especially in cultures that are discriminatory among their own, never mind rest of world.
Like many companies, IBM is self-insured with respect to healthcare. That means that all doctors's visits, hospital coverage, etc. are paid directly by the company instead of some insurance firm.
However, it also means that the company is sensitive to ongoing healthcare costs. Disabled employees are more likely to cost more in healthcare costs, so that is factored into RA decisions.
Worse. I disclosed an acquired physical disability in Jan 2023 and was RAd by May same year.
In the US at least, federal law prohibits the direct targeting of someone for action based on a disability
Trump is fixing this problem
Personally, I'd suggest that your "RA chances" would be dependent on your own situation. In the US at least, federal law prohibits the direct targeting of someone for action based on a disability. However, that goes both ways...a disability will not protect the employee from an action that is applied to a broad class of employees. All RAs impact hundreds or thousands of people, so a disability will not necessarily help or hurt you.
Realistically, IBM will protect itself. If the employee is good enough, they'll keep the employee despite whatever disability they have. If the employee isn't good enough, or they cost too much already, then that disability just gets factored into the decision-making as something like "potential for excessive medical costs". You can guess what that means.
Well if your "disability" is that you're a male over 40 .... then yeah, disclosing that will definitely make it more likely that you'll be RA'd.