Thread regarding Chevron Corp. layoffs

I remember sitting in a meeting where some Decision Analyst had his model up on the screen with a linearly increasing oil price forecasted out 20 years. I asked him when in past history has that EVER happened.

BP was always conservative with its oil price forecast. It figured that if the business is profitable at $55/bbl, then it is really profitable at $100/bbl. It is when companies budget for $100/bbl and the actual price is $55/bbl that problems occur.

Hey! Just thinking - whatever happened to "lower for longer", the low oil price mantra Shell and BP (then parroted by MW) were promoting just five years ago? Just goes to show you that all (not most, but ALL) oil price predictions have virtually no chance of being accurate for more than a year or two.

The problem with most oil price forecasts is that they're done by MBAs with limited or no oil industry savvy, who go by the linear Wharton and Harvard projections rather than historic market trends. If you take any uptick in prices and extrapolate it linearly (regardless of world events), you'll reach $400 oil at some point in the future. BP is projecting an average of $55/bbl (google "BP oil price forecast") 2021-2050 (repeat, 2050, which will take care of every current Chevron employee's career). Oil traders make their profit off the sinusoidal variations in oil price. With a little information (you know they have it), they can "predict" the short-term price trends and become fantastically rich. https://www.thebalance.com/oil-price-history-3306200#:~:text=Oil%20Prices%20by%20Year%3A%20Average%2C%20High%2C%20Low%2C%20and,Recession%20ends%20inflation%20%2048%20more%20rows%20

Note the #1 key takeaway, "Traders’ market perceptions influence oil prices more than actual global supply and demand." That is exactly what we see going on now. There is no disruption in supply (unlike 1970's oil embargoes), and refined product can move quite readily from one market to another. I'm not a conspiracy buff, but this has all the indications of the industry (and NOCs) punishing Biden and his green lunatics ahead of the mid-terms. Maybe too much of a stretch, but note the Saudis et al and MW et al ignoring (and lecturing) Biden on his desperation "do it now" pleadings. Saudis et al are saying, 'you raid your own SPR, we just produce less'.

I’ve been in and out of CVX in my 401k holdings for well over 15 years. I’ve done pretty good too. But I’ve done even better in the S&P500 index, especially after the last run up. Lucky or just well tuned to market sentiment and fundamentals, I bailed to cash before this most recent 20% correction. I’m fairly certain the hard landing these steep basis points the Fed is doing to interest rates will take us into a hard landing and an economic recession that will last some 18 to 24 months. I hope you’re not invested too heavily in the market because it’s down and going down further. If you hold on to your 401k investments for 2 more years, you’ll be grateful for doing so. We’ll be coming out the other side by then.

Uh-oh. Chevron stock under $140 and a US recession on the way. Put those BMWs and Kilimanjaro trips on hold for now. I sure hope you guys sold out at $170, like I told you. Check the SEC filings to see all the Chevron EVPs and Board members who did. I'm no pro, but my 401(k) has made quite a bit of money over the years selling Chevron high then buying back in low. I think I've done it like 5 or 6 times now.

Don’t look now, but oil is down at $99.15 today July 5 at 1:35 PM. Looks like you spoke too soon….

Precisely, @1dyz. Not the most eloquent way to say it, but you summed it up correctly.

$400 oil seems high. Let’s look for $200 first and take it from there.

• LeRoy

“Russia sticks it to us.”

LOL….is this person serious?

Based on the performance of their military, Russia isn’t going to be “sticking it” to anyone anytime soon. The Russian economy is about the size of Italy’s - in other words, not very large. Russia accounts for less than 10% of global oil and gas supplies, their domestic economy is a basket case, and they’ve just defaulted on their sovereign debt.

Are you worried about the old, fat, washed-up middle-weight boxer beating you up? If not, then you shouldn’t be worried about Russia.

no chance. The russian oil is still mostly on the market and being sold at a big discount to India and China. US is increasing production and OPEC still has excess capacity.

I Would have thought our stock would hit $300 in that case. Assuming, etc.

I think some sensible folks would take out 'The Kingdom' before this could happen.
Gotta keep a few tourist sites open over there, but the Faisimiles can go.

OP, Before Russia sticks it to us, I assure you they’ll stick to themselves first.

Won’t have to worry about our stock price. We would be nationalized before it got to that level.

Cushing oil inventory is at a low and Biden has been draining the SPR at a rate of 1 million BOPD while the price of oil is still over $100. Strange the US is draining the SPR at 1 million BOPD while the US is exporting 3 million BOPD. Does that make any sense to essentially export the country's strategic petroleum? After the mid-terms are over the price of oil will go to $200 per barrel. Why? Because they want you driving EV's. Get ready.

Sounds quite high. Imagine gas prices hitting $20/gallon.