1Q 2022 results are coming up on 4/19, any thoughts?
1Q is always soft, will it be softer than usual and send the stock in a tail spin?
6 replies (most recent on top)
I predict ... accounting gimmicks ... again. 'Cause that's the only thing that the Execs know how to do at this point.
So the real question is will IBM drop the restructuring hammer on the rest of IBM (non-GTS portions) IBM took out 25% of the company with very little bottom line effect. They now need to get serious about restructuring the rest of IBM as Wall Street is getting tired of hearing “it’s going to be great”. IBM usually makes big decisions around earnings announcements so they can muddy the water. Is next Tuesday the day? Time will tell, but this glacial restructuring is starting to run out of excuses and Wall Street will begin to demand results. Executive management can’t hide behind Covid anymore, so hard decisions will need to be made
Dinner conversation tonight
Wife: how does IBM make money?
Me: I have to be honest, every few years we release a new version of the previous version of mainframe and force every bank to buy one.
Wife: what about other lines of business?
Me: well everything else is just IBM pretending we care about customers and their needs.
Wife: How is the different than what IBM did 50 years ago?
Me: it isn’t.
Wife: what happens when everyone moves off mainframes?
Me: ?
Wife: ?
Me: Ii need to find a new job.
Who fu----g cares! Sold all of my IBM stock! Can’t support a company that condones age discrimination and fudges the numbers! It will catch up with the id--t execs that run the company!
All revenue will be fudged into whatever growth areas that drives the exec bonuses, and everything else will be down.
They will exceed expectations by 1-3 cents. Management has already talked the stock down during 1st Q’s results (eg this is the last Z15 quarter) (EG HW should be slightly down) NOTE some Z16’s went out the door in March. GBS is hiring any consultant who can spell Z so that says consulting revenue will be up (50% of IBM’s revenue) SW will be a push. Redhat/openshift/AI will grow, but Legacy will shrink. NET NET 1-3% on the upside