Thread regarding Macy's Inc. layoffs

What Junk Rated Means For Macy's Future

Rating agencies aren't quick to rate a company's debt as "junk." Things have to be very, very bad for them to do this. These agencies have access to a company's true state of affairs, which in no way resembles the happy talk employees are fed.

Some may think this means Macy's will be taken over by a bigger player. Here's why this is highly unlikely.

Macy's just received the official kiss of death. The company will find it hard, if not impossible to raise capital, and if it does, it will be under very predatory terms which at best will allow the execs their golden parachute at the expense of employees and shareholders.

When things get this bad, there's very few lifeboats on the Titanic and you can bet your life none are reserved for peon workers. So, don't delude yourself into thinking some white knight company is going to swoop in and save your job.

It won't happen. Maybe, and I mean MAYBE, someone might be willing to buy the brand, apart from all the baggage such as debt, building leases, and employees. Any potential investor would be looking at what he can pick off the carcass and turn a profit with easily, which sure doesn't mean thousands of employees and/or high priced leases in the brick and mortar retail graveyard.

Most likely, everyone will stand clear and wide of the train wreck known as Macy's and let the dust settle before sifting through the wreckage for anything of value. Like vultures circling a dying animal overhead, they know it's much easier and safer to swoop in after it dies than fight it to the death while it's alive.

Macy's may be the new "Sears" but Sears went down while retail was still doing somewhat ok. Today, retail is crashing hard, which will make Macy's fall much faster than Sears's fall was. It is unlikely you have years like many Sears employees did.

More like 6-12 months for those whose store doesn't close right now.

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| 2231 views | | 16 replies (last February 25, 2020) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+13AB0J67

16 replies (most recent on top)

Sears stayed in business losing money for 8+ years, Macy’s still is profitable. So that’s wrong.

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Post ID: @6wox+13AB0J67

Watch what happens when Capt Magic (Gannette) cuts the dividend!

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Post ID: @4gsg+13AB0J67

This specific rating-junk status, refers to Macys Debt being downgraded to higher rate.

Similarly, one could rate the same status for merchandise Macys is selling!

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Post ID: @3hod+13AB0J67

another big layoff in retail/ecommerce – 550+ people from wayfair

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Post ID: @2aoo+13AB0J67

"The bad news is, your exec team doesn’t know what they’re doing when it comes to navigating the changing consumer. They think throwing money at technology is going to fix the issue, but without proper guidance in that realm they may as well burn it. Their core customers also aren’t online shoppers."

Actually, they have figured out they couldn't throw money at tech to fix the issue as far back as 2016 when they cut tech capital spending. The recent closing of SF office is just an exclamation point. I left around the same time because I didn't think tech would help since there's a bigger problem afoot. There's an acute lack of self-awareness that they can't attract new customers by sticking to the existing merchandising.

Their only real appreciating assets are the real estate.

The "$1B brands" like Alfani, INC, are depreciating in value everyday. Can someone really make an argument they're equals to Cole Haan? Can you imagine what will happen if Macy's were to IPO these brands like Cole Haan?

The core people/skill assets around merchandising is also depreciating since their skill sets are no longer valuable outside Macy's.

The brand/name recognition has been depreciating since the stores experience has been consistently sub-par for the past 10 years now.

It's going to take a while to unwind a huge legacy company like Macy's. They still have a few tricks to slow down the death spiral. For example, firing Jeff G. with a respectable executive with a hero complex will buy them a couple of years of probation from the investors.

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Post ID: @1guo+13AB0J67

First comment is spot on and agree with most other comments above especially how fast this ship may sink. Simply, the downgrade of our bond rating is similar to your personal credit score dropping and you have to pay higher interest rates on credit card debt, car/home financing as your income maybe insufficient to pay your debt.

Regardless, Macys may be the Houston Astros of fashion retail, except Macys was stealing signals from Sears!

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Post ID: @1brp+13AB0J67

if the product selection is terrible, having perfect tech and store processes won't help! customers will still dislike what they see and they will spend their money elsewhere. frankly, i've gotten tired of digging through the website for clothing that i like. don't even mention doing that in stores...

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Post ID: @1mrd+13AB0J67

All it means is, IF Macys needs to borrow money, it will cost them a pretty penny.

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Post ID: @1qmg+13AB0J67

We told management 10 years ago where we needed to be focusing especially online. That's about when whack-a-mole started and they have enjoyed the firings. The creative thinkers are gone and
those left are buried.

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Post ID: @pyd+13AB0J67

As an impartial observer, looking at the third quarter balance sheet and trending out a bit, Macy’s does seem to be bleeding cash at a pretty quick rate.

The good news is that it’s still a billion dollar/year revenue company with a valuable brand with a lot of fixed assets.

The bad news is, your exec team doesn’t know what they’re doing when it comes to navigating the changing consumer. They think throwing money at technology is going to fix the issue, but without proper guidance in that realm they may as well burn it. Their core customers also aren’t online shoppers.

I’m not as bearish on their future to say they’ll sink quicker than Sears, I’d still give them another decade or so.

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Post ID: @caj+13AB0J67

macy's has a lot of stuff that I can't see anyone wanting to buy. brands like charter club, karen scott, style&co... are so ugly and poor quality. prints and patterns that I wouldn't be caught dead wearing. target sells better quality clothing than that and for way less $. the sad thing is those brands make up the majority of macy's inventory and is what macy's is being known for. you never see that stuff at nordstrom. even the wasteland of amazon has more stylish clothing. who is the macy's customer?? i've long heard "middle-aged women," but our prices don't match up with the style. if you want the kind of style we're selling, you can get the same for less $ at target, amazon, tjmaxx, other discount stores. if you have the money to spend, better to go to nordstrom.

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Post ID: @cga+13AB0J67

I’m going with my original prediction of Macy’s has 2 to 2.5 years left before you will be shocked how bad it’s gonna turn into.

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Post ID: @loz+13AB0J67

This post is spot on. At this point in history everyone needs to do their homework. Using the last decade as a guide is old school. We are no longer talking brick-and-mortar commerce. I was a Macy employee, in a neighborhood mall. Research class A, B and C malls, and read Macy's plans for stores that are in a mall with vacant anchor stores Closing it is part of their 3 year plan.

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Post ID: @igh+13AB0J67

What happens if we receive pension pay monthly from an annuity. Is this protected?

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Post ID: @ouv+13AB0J67

I’m pretty sure this is the 3rd time in the last decade they have been at this rating. One rating agency downgraded them and the other still has them rated one level above junk. Yes companies do get downgraded and upgraded on regular basis as situations and results change.

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Post ID: @yyn+13AB0J67

I'm embarrassed to say that I am a peon sadly and don't know anything about this topic. Is this particular rating important, or is it just one opinion among many? Has this happened to Macys before? Do companies come on and off this list all the time, or is this a significant matter?

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Post ID: @xvf+13AB0J67

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